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Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
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| appleperson | HomeRunHazard | nigiri99 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | no settled market | 54% (366–315, n=681) | 54% (338–285, n=623) |
| Consensus PnL | $89 | $405K | $411K |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #992 | PM monthly #8 | PM monthly #105 |
| Sides with the consensus | 75% (6 of 8 open) | 69% (128 of 185 open) | 53% (69 of 129 open) |
| Strongest topics | none with 10+ settled |
| |
| Weakest topic | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 100% of 2 at avg 68¢, ROI +36% | 100% of 194 at avg 53¢, ROI +47% | 66% of 520 at avg 53¢, ROI +5% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 0% | 1% (won 100% of 2) | 14% (won 33% of 73) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 0% | 32% (won 100% of 62) | 24% (won 56% of 125) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 50% (won 100% of 1) | 59% (won 100% of 115) | 43% (won 69% of 226) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 50% (won 100% of 1) | 8% (won 100% of 15) | 18% (won 98% of 96) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
38 on the same side, 23 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | appleperson | HomeRunHazard | nigiri99 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Hawks (-6.5) opposite sides · consensus Hawks | — | Bulls $21K | Hawks $8.2K |
| Spread: Rockets (-15.5) opposite sides · consensus Jazz | — | Jazz $16K | Rockets $48 |
| Spread: Spurs (-14.5) opposite sides · consensus Spurs | — | Warriors $5.3K | Spurs $7.2K |
| Spread: Houston (-6.5) opposite sides · consensus Houston | — | Colorado $2.9K | Houston $7.5K |
| Warriors vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 opposite sides · consensus Under | — | Under $5.5K | Over $1.9K |
| Houston vs. Colorado: O/U 53.5 opposite sides · consensus Over | — | Under $5.6K | Over $29 |
| Dolphins vs. Colts: O/U 38.5 opposite sides · consensus Under | — | Over $4.4K | Under $1.1K |
| Wisconsin vs. Maryland: O/U 41.5 opposite sides · consensus Over | — | Over $2.2K | Under $2.4K |
| Trail Blazers vs. Kings opposite sides · consensus Trail Blazers | — | Trail Blazers $2.2K | Kings $1.9K |
| Jazz vs. Rockets: O/U 220.5 opposite sides · consensus Under | — | Under $1.1K | Over $2.6K |
| Predators vs. Golden Knights opposite sides · consensus Predators | — | Predators $3.6K | Golden Knights $79 |
| Spread: Thunder (-9.5) opposite sides · consensus Clippers | — | Thunder $3.6K | Clippers $12 |
| Warriors vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 opposite sides · consensus Under | — | Under $3.4K | Over $60 |
| Spread: James Madison (-6.5) opposite sides · consensus UConn | — | UConn $2.1K | James Madison $1.3K |
| Spread: Alabama (-17.5) opposite sides · consensus Vanderbilt | — | Alabama $1.6K | Vanderbilt $967 |
| Spread: Indiana (-8.5) opposite sides · consensus Indiana | — | Indiana $2.5K | USC $2 |
| Spread: UCLA (-10.5) opposite sides · consensus UCLA | — | Illinois $434 | UCLA $1.5K |
| Spread: Hawks (-7.5) opposite sides · consensus Bulls | — | Bulls $736 | Hawks $471 |
| California-San Diego Tritons vs. Utah State Aggies opposite sides · consensus Utah State Aggies | — | Utah State Aggies $733 | California-San Diego Tritons $52 |
| Spread: Auburn (-2.5) opposite sides · consensus Auburn | — | Mississippi State $393 | Auburn $373 |
| Spread: Spurs (-9.5) opposite sides · consensus Spurs | — | Warriors $1 | Spurs $259 |
| Nebraska vs. Rutgers: O/U 51.5 opposite sides · consensus Under | — | Over $23 | Under $200 |
| Alabama vs. Vanderbilt opposite sides · consensus Alabama | — | Alabama $62 | Vanderbilt $13 |
| Spread: Thunder (-6.5) same side · consensus Clippers | — | Thunder $22K | Thunder $6.5K |
| Spread: Spurs (-10.5) same side · consensus Spurs | — | Spurs $14K | Spurs $640 |
| Spread: Spurs (-11.5) same side · consensus Spurs | — | Spurs $5.3K | Spurs $9.4K |
| Patriots vs. Lions: O/U 50.5 same side · consensus Under | — | Over $12K | Over $1.5K |
| Spread: Thunder (-5.5) same side · consensus Clippers | — | Thunder $12K | Thunder $48 |
| Warriors vs. Spurs same side · consensus Spurs | — | Spurs $3.4K | Spurs $8.2K |
| Spread: Thunder (-7.5) same side · consensus Clippers | — | Clippers $1.7K | Clippers $9.7K |
| Thunder vs. Clippers: O/U 222.5 same side · consensus Over | — | Under $9.7K | Under $117 |
| Warriors vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 same side · consensus Under | — | Under $7.4K | Under $1.7K |
| Jazz vs. Rockets: O/U 222.5 same side · consensus Over | — | Over $8.2K | Over $608 |
| Spread: Indiana (-7.5) same side · consensus Indiana | — | Indiana $6.4K | Indiana $911 |
| Hawks vs. Bulls: O/U 246.5 same side · consensus Under | — | Under $5.5K | Under $872 |
| Spread: Trail Blazers (-10.5) same side · consensus Kings | — | Kings $656 | Kings $3.2K |
| Spread: Texans (-3.5) same side · consensus Texans | — | Browns $2.4K | Browns $1.2K |
| Trail Blazers vs. Kings: O/U 229.5 same side · consensus Over | — | Over $3.3K | Over $60 |
| Spread: Kennesaw State (-7.5) same side · consensus Sam Houston | — | Kennesaw State $2.2K | Kennesaw State $580 |
| Spread: Alabama (-16.5) same side · consensus Vanderbilt | — | Vanderbilt $2.1K | Vanderbilt $542 |
| Spread: Jaguars (-10.5) same side · consensus Titans | — | Jaguars $1.1K | Jaguars $1.3K |
| Jazz vs. Rockets: O/U 219.5 same side · consensus Over | — | Over $1.6K | Over $800 |
| Houston vs. Colorado: O/U 51.5 same side · consensus Over | — | Over $80 | Over $1.8K |
| Illinois vs. UCLA same side · consensus UCLA | — | UCLA $1.0K | UCLA $705 |
| Spread: Rockets (-16.5) same side · consensus Jazz | — | Jazz $1.6K | Jazz $31 |
| Spread: Trail Blazers (-9.5) same side · consensus Kings | — | Trail Blazers $323 | Trail Blazers $1.1K |
| Houston vs. Colorado same side · consensus Houston | — | Colorado $101 | Colorado $1.0K |
| Dolphins vs. Colts same side · consensus Colts | — | Colts $1.1K | Colts $3 |
| Cincinnati vs. Iowa State: O/U 59.5 same side · consensus Over | — | Over $6 | Over $861 |
| South Carolina vs. Arkansas same side · consensus South Carolina | — | South Carolina $265 | South Carolina $546 |