Spread: Thunder (-9.5)

7 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Clippers (50%) · Clippers at 62¢ · $12K held · ended Nov 14

Thunder39¢Clippers61¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Clippers

Consensus Traders

Clippers 50%

Total Value

$11.8K

Combined PnL

$182.26

Smart Money Entry

60.3¢ → 61.5¢

+2% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidClippers at 62%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Clippers

7 of 14 top traders (50%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Thunder39%

Clippers62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Clippers7 traders

Total Value$7.8K

Total Shares12,299

Combined PnL+$345.68

Thunder7 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares10,711

Combined PnL-$163.41

Clippers — 50%Thunder — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Clippers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Clippers) and the top 1000 (8 on Thunder) disagree here.

ctrClippers 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedClippers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Thunder 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Clippersavg 60¢	$6.8K	$7.1K	+$338.4	53% 1179-1029 (2208)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Thunderavg 40¢	$3.7K	$3.6K	-$140.28	57% 3567-2709 (6276)
RN1	Clippersavg 63.4¢	$533.18	$538.24	+$5.06	56% 5043-4004 (9047)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Thunderavg 37.7¢	$494.93	$472.15	-$22.78	50% 3526-3585 (7111)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Clippersavg 63¢	$43.41	$44.44	+$1.03	54% 1316-1100 (2416)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Clippersavg 64¢	$36.11	$36.4	+$0.28	56% 4015-3133 (7148)
SU SunlineTicker<$100	Clippersavg 59¢	$24.3	$25.33	+$1.03	70% 1712-741 (2453)
nigiri99<$100	Clippersavg 62¢	$11.78	$11.69	-$0.09	52% 499-463 (962)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Thunderavg 40¢	$10	$9.63	-$0.38	49% 1329-1376 (2705)
SU suntori<$100	Clippersavg 59.4¢	$4.82	$4.79	-$0.03	46% 2333-2789 (5122)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Thunderavg 39¢	$4.32	$4.27	-$0.06	54% 437-367 (804)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Thunderavg 41¢	$2.05	$1.95	-$0.1	40% 609-910 (1519)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Thunderavg 36¢	$1.76	$1.93	+$0.17	49% 1865-1975 (3840)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Thunderavg 39¢	$0.65	$0.65	-$0	48% 2922-3218 (6140)

VeryLucky888

Clippers

Invested

$6,772.7

Value

$7.1K

PnL

+$338.4

Record

53%

1179-1029 (2208)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Thunder

Invested

$3,740.67

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$140.28

Record

57%

3567-2709 (6276)

RN1

Clippers

Invested

$533.18

Value

$538.24

PnL

+$5.06

Record

56%

5043-4004 (9047)

FlaznorpCTR

Thunder

Invested

$494.93

Value

$472.15

PnL

-$22.78

Record

50%

3526-3585 (7111)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Clippers

Invested

$43.41

Value

$44.44

PnL

+$1.03

Record

54%

1316-1100 (2416)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Clippers

Invested

$36.11

Value

$36.4

PnL

+$0.28

Record

56%

4015-3133 (7148)

SunlineTicker<$100

Clippers

Invested

$24.3

Value

$25.33

PnL

+$1.03

Record

70%

1712-741 (2453)

nigiri99<$100

Clippers

Invested

$11.78

Value

$11.69

PnL

-$0.09

Record

52%

499-463 (962)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$10

Value

$9.63

PnL

-$0.38

Record

49%

1329-1376 (2705)

suntori<$100

Clippers

Invested

$4.82

Value

$4.79

PnL

-$0.03

Record

46%

2333-2789 (5122)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$4.32

Value

$4.27

PnL

-$0.06

Record

54%

437-367 (804)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$2.05

Value

$1.95

PnL

-$0.1

Record

40%

609-910 (1519)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$1.76

Value

$1.93

PnL

+$0.17

Record

49%

1865-1975 (3840)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$0.65

Value

$0.65

PnL

-$0

Record

48%

2922-3218 (6140)

Research grade

AvoidClippers at 62%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Clippers

7 of 14 top traders (50%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Clippers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Clippers) and the top 1000 (8 on Thunder) disagree here.

ctrClippers 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedClippers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Thunder 75% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Clippers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.