Spread: Spurs (-9.5)

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Spurs (22%) · Spurs at 98¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 14

Spurs98¢Warriors2¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Spurs

Consensus Traders

Spurs 22%

Total Value

$4.3K

Combined PnL

$156.12

Smart Money Entry

64.1¢ → 98¢

+53% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidSpurs at 98%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Spurs

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Spurs98%

Warriors2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Spurs2 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares4,272

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Warriors7 traders

Total Value$262.62

Total Shares3,986

Combined PnL$-1.2K

Spurs — 22%Warriors — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Spurs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSpurs 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrWarriors 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Warriors 78% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CH ch27er	Spursavg 64.6¢	$2.5K	$3.8K	+$1.3K	27% 19-52 (71)
nigiri99	Spursavg 59¢	$236.59	$259	+$22.41	51% 499-470 (969)
VE VenusianCTR	Warriorsavg 40¢	$136.8	$119.7	-$17.1	36% 893-1601 (2494)
FO forecastication4CTR	Warriorsavg 35¢	$635.1	$64.42	-$570.69	32% 147-308 (455)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Warriorsavg 35¢	$296.1	$30.03	-$266.07	70% 1714-741 (2455)
38 38791873984189CTR	Warriorsavg 36.4¢	$382.28	$20.86	-$140.64	48% 2942-3249 (6191)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Warriorsavg 36¢	$171.36	$16.9	-$154.46	50% 3544-3611 (7155)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Warriorsavg 36¢	$60.76	$9.57	-$12.32	49% 1349-1396 (2745)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Warriorsavg 39¢	$1.28	$1.15	-$0.13	57% 3570-2717 (6287)

ch27er

Spurs

Invested

$2,500

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

27%

19-52 (71)

nigiri99

Spurs

Invested

$236.59

Value

$259

PnL

+$22.41

Record

51%

499-470 (969)

VenusianCTR

Warriors

Invested

$136.8

Value

$119.7

PnL

-$17.1

Record

36%

893-1601 (2494)

forecastication4CTR

Warriors

Invested

$635.1

Value

$64.42

PnL

-$570.69

Record

32%

147-308 (455)

SunlineTickerCTR

Warriors

Invested

$296.1

Value

$30.03

PnL

-$266.07

Record

70%

1714-741 (2455)

38791873984189CTR

Warriors

Invested

$382.28

Value

$20.86

PnL

-$140.64

Record

48%

2942-3249 (6191)

FlaznorpCTR

Warriors

Invested

$171.36

Value

$16.9

PnL

-$154.46

Record

50%

3544-3611 (7155)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Warriors

Invested

$60.76

Value

$9.57

PnL

-$12.32

Record

49%

1349-1396 (2745)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Warriors

Invested

$1.28

Value

$1.15

PnL

-$0.13

Record

57%

3570-2717 (6287)

Research grade

AvoidSpurs at 98%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Spurs

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Spurs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSpurs 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrWarriors 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Warriors 78% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Spurs wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.1%

98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.91

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.