Spread: Rockets (-15.5)

2 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Rockets (20%) · Rockets at 52¢ · $39K held · ends Nov 14

Rockets52¢Jazz48¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Rockets

Consensus Traders

Rockets 20%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$38.6K

Combined PnL

$254.24

Smart Money Entry

51.1¢ → 51.5¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidRockets at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Rockets

2 of 10 top traders (20%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Rockets52%

Jazz49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Rockets2 traders

Total Value$18.8K

Total Shares36,444

Combined PnL+$145.83

Jazz8 traders

Total Value$18.7K

Total Shares37,906

Combined PnL+$108.41

Rockets — 20%Jazz — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Rockets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrJazz 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Jazz 78% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Rocketsavg 51¢	$18.3K	$18.5K	+$179.42	51% 2261-2214 (4475)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Jazzavg 49¢	$13.4K	$13.5K	+$136.65	49% 611-642 (1253)
nehcnehcCTR	Jazzavg 49¢	$4.7K	$4.7K	-$48.23	34% 43-83 (126)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Rocketsavg 55¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$88.49	57% 3561-2704 (6265)
└ Rockets leg	Rocketsavg 55¢	$973.41	$884.92	-$88.49
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 49¢	$245.3	$245.3	+$0
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF	Rocketsavg 56¢	$313.49	$279.9	-$33.59	38% 17-28 (45)
FO Forecastication2CTR	Jazzavg 45¢	$188.55	$205.31	+$16.76	45% 214-259 (473)
38 38791873984189CTR	Jazzavg 49¢	$291.08	$146.75	+$2.19	48% 2786-3040 (5826)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Jazzavg 49¢	$59.57	$59.57	+$0	59% 3648-2489 (6137)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Jazzavg 49¢	$30.86	$20.5	-$0.16	49% 1306-1355 (2661)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Jazzavg 49¢	$19.6	$19.8	+$0.2	55% 248-199 (447)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Jazzavg 44¢	$8.79	$9.79	+$1	53% 388-339 (727)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Rockets

Invested

$18,300.85

Value

$18.5K

PnL

+$179.42

Record

51%

2261-2214 (4475)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Jazz

Invested

$13,391.82

Value

$13.5K

PnL

+$136.65

Record

49%

611-642 (1253)

nehcnehcCTR

Jazz

Invested

$4,727.03

Value

$4.7K

PnL

-$48.23

Record

34%

43-83 (126)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Rockets

Invested

$1,218.71

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$88.49

Record

57%

3561-2704 (6265)

Both legs:

Rockets$973.4155¢-$88.49

Jazz$245.349¢+$0

QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF

Rockets

Invested

$313.49

Value

$279.9

PnL

-$33.59

Record

38%

17-28 (45)

Forecastication2CTR

Jazz

Invested

$188.55

Value

$205.31

PnL

+$16.76

Record

45%

214-259 (473)

38791873984189CTR

Jazz

Invested

$291.08

Value

$146.75

PnL

+$2.19

Record

48%

2786-3040 (5826)

NM-PCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$59.57

Value

$59.57

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

3648-2489 (6137)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$30.86

Value

$20.5

PnL

-$0.16

Record

49%

1306-1355 (2661)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$19.6

Value

$19.8

PnL

+$0.2

Record

55%

248-199 (447)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$8.79

Value

$9.79

PnL

+$1

Record

53%

388-339 (727)

Research grade

AvoidRockets at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Rockets

2 of 10 top traders (20%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Rockets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrJazz 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Jazz 78% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Rockets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.