Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Colorado, while the market favors Houston (78%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Houston vs. Colorado
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Colorado (100%) · Colorado at 23¢ · $216 held · ends Nov 14
⚠️
Avoid
Colorado
5
Colorado 100%
$216.16
$9.48
21¢ → 22.5¢
+7% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidColorado at 23%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Houston 78%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Colorado. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBallCTR | Coloradoavg 21.1¢ | $99.85 | $104.28 | +$4.43 | 47% 148-167 (315) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100 | Coloradoavg 21¢ | $81.7 | $85.59 | +$3.89 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Coloradoavg 21¢ | $22.46 | $23.53 | +$1.07 | 53% 335-299 (634) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Coloradoavg 22¢ | $1.41 | $1.44 | +$0.03 | 51% 252-247 (499) |
OD OddstormCTR<$100 | Coloradoavg 21¢ | $1.26 | $1.32 | +$0.06 | 15% 16-94 (110) |
Invested
$99.85
Value
$104.28
PnL
+$4.43
Record
47%
148-167 (315)
Invested
$81.7
Value
$85.59
PnL
+$3.89
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
Invested
$22.46
Value
$23.53
PnL
+$1.07
Record
53%
335-299 (634)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$1.41
Value
$1.44
PnL
+$0.03
Record
51%
252-247 (499)
Invested
$1.26
Value
$1.32
PnL
+$0.06
Record
15%
16-94 (110)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
22.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.