Illinois vs. UCLA
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold UCLA (60%) · UCLA at 78¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
UCLA
5
UCLA 60%
$1.3K
$23.2
76¢ → 77.5¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUCLA at 78%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on UCLA. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | UCLAavg 76¢ | $987.24 | $1.0K | +$19.49 | 57% 3430-2600 (6030) |
38 38791873984189 | UCLAavg 76.2¢ | $260.89 | $147.39 | +$5.69 | 48% 1999-2208 (4207) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Illinoisavg 22.7¢ | $73.86 | $71.72 | -$2.14 | 46% 420-485 (905) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100 | UCLAavg 77¢ | $26.18 | $26.35 | +$0.17 | 55% 197-161 (358) |
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100 | Illinoisavg 22¢ | $1.41 | $1.41 | -$0 | 36% 35-62 (97) |
Invested
$987.24
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$19.49
Record
57%
3430-2600 (6030)
Invested
$260.89
Value
$147.39
PnL
+$5.69
Record
48%
1999-2208 (4207)
Invested
$73.86
Value
$71.72
PnL
-$2.14
Record
46%
420-485 (905)
Invested
$26.18
Value
$26.35
PnL
+$0.17
Record
55%
197-161 (358)
Invested
$1.41
Value
$1.41
PnL
-$0
Record
36%
35-62 (97)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.