What's new

A public status page shows whether the site, the market data, the background updates and the bot API are working, with 90 days of uptime checked from outside our own server. Every page now shows how fresh the market data is, next to Search.

The research page now leads with the full-year results without hindsight, and the grade explanations, filter notes and quality chip quote them too. The research grade's "Research candidate" rules looked good in a short backtest but did not hold up over the year, and the texts now say so.

One page now explains how the consensus is counted, where the data comes from, how fresh it is and what our research found, with a version history. This changelog lists what changed for visitors, with an Atom feed.

We replayed the site's own rule over a year of every Polymarket trade, with the tracked wallets rebuilt day by day as the site would have seen them. Following the consensus lost about 3% a trade after costs in the test half of the year, and none of 86 narrower ideas held up.

Markets that had already ended could stay on the list for 40 minutes or more, and the current 5- and 15-minute crypto markets were missing because their end times were read as midnight. Both are fixed.

After an hourly refresh, a trader's page could show the trader ranked next to the one you asked for. Every trader link now opens the right profile.

Trader pages and the copy-trader research now default to "Full history, every trade, no hindsight": 27,345 wallets that were ever in the tracked set, with every fill they made from December 2022 to October 25, 2026.

Accounts that run bots through the Bot API get a Weekly report tab on the dashboard: each bot's profit for the week and since it started, its trades and win rate, and whether there are enough trades yet to tell an edge from luck.

Traders you follow now appear in the dashboard's Watchlist tab, marked "Following", and a trader's page has a single Follow button.

A self-hosted bot can read the traders your account follows and copy each one on paper. The dashboard's Copy bots tab shows each copy's return next to the trader's own.

The copy-trader figure now mirrors every buy and every sell, after the spread and fees on both, instead of only the positions a trader still held at the end. The old figure stays as a second row.

Every consensus signal is now frozen when it forms and settled when Polymarket resolves the market, after the spread and fees. The research page shows that live record next to the backtests.

Test your own rule (who to follow, topic, price, money, timing, exit) on past data with the same costs and checks as our backtests, browse everyone's runs, and see eight pre-registered ideas tested.

What copying each tracked trader would have returned after costs, at their price and an hour later, and a chip on market cards when tracked traders bet far above their usual size.

Open market pages show how similar past signals turned out and when the consensus formed, flipped or lost its holders, from a replay of the site's rule.

Each open market gets Research candidate, Neutral or Avoid, computed from the market as it is now, with the evidence behind each rule. New filters: Quality 3+, Favourites, Big money, Tennis tour and Forming, plus a trading-cost chip.

Signed-in accounts can follow traders and set alert rules for new or flipped consensus markets and for followed traders' trades, with limits so nothing floods.

Browse the consensus by topic (elections, geopolitics, tennis, esports and more), see each trader's specialties, and compare traders side by side.

The insiders page now keeps a record of the unusual bets it flagged and shows how they settled, by score band.

The view you pick lives in the address, so it can be shared and Back returns to the same place. One Sort menu with filter chips, live scores on match cards, site search (press / or Ctrl+K), and the list updates without reloading.

Market pages arrive with their content already in place, show a quality chip and each holder's record, and keep a trade bar at the bottom on phones. The traders list sorts and pages on the server, with labelled ranks and every win rate shown with its count.

New versions of the site now go live without taking it down, so updates no longer interrupt visitors.

The top bar keeps Markets, Traders, Insiders, Alerts, Elections, Topics and Search; everything else is in the menu.

Sports market pages list every market of the same match with its consensus, and a probability chart with ranges from one hour to all time marks the tracked traders' trades.

Sports market pages show the live score, period and sets the way Polymarket does.

Every midterm market with a smart-money consensus in one place, ahead of the November 3 election.

The resolved-markets win rate no longer leaves out losses where most holders were on the losing side. The expected-value calculator now includes the spread and Polymarket's fee, and no longer prefills the head count as a probability.

Market orders show their average price, price impact and fee before you sign, re-check the order book first and ask twice when the impact is large. New: claim winnings, close a position, an orders card with cancel-all, and withdraw to your own wallet.

Buttons show 99.6¢ instead of rounding to 100¢, and orders use the market's current tick size.

Sports sub-markets (spreads, totals, exact scores) are no longer filed under Other, and a finer topic is shown on each market.

While the site restarts, visitors see a short updating page instead of a bare error.

Markets Polymarket refunds at 50-50 (cancelled matches, ties, walkovers) now show "Resolved 50-50 (void)", are valued at 50¢ a share, and never count as a win or a loss.

A Polymarket-style order book with your own open orders and a cancel button. Click a price to start a limit order there.

A market that closes or resolves now leaves the live list about a minute after Polymarket closes it, instead of at the next hourly refresh.

Trade times now come from the block each trade was made in. Some trades read back from the chain had been dated too early.

The Bot API's live stream now sends a change in a market's consensus within about a second of the trades behind it.

Holders and the consensus of listed markets are re-counted every 30 seconds and within seconds of new trades, instead of once an hour.

When one transaction filled several orders, only the first fill was kept, so many positions were undercounted. Every fill is now stored, and the earlier history was read again from the chain.

A trader who sold out no longer reappears as a holder after the hourly refresh, and a leftover of less than one share no longer counts as holding a market.

Markets that Polymarket still had open (an election with a possible second round, a postponed game) were shown as ended once their end date passed. They stay open until Polymarket closes them, and missing winners were filled in.

The site no longer freezes for a few minutes once an hour, and the largest traders' pages no longer slow everything else down.

The traders list stopped at 500; it now pages through all of the roughly 2,400 tracked traders. Trade lists show real times instead of "just now".

Many traders' closed positions had never been fully read, so their records were missing and the win-rate check skipped them. The copy now finishes, and the large-trades page no longer stalls on a hung request.

Polymarket's game markets were filed under Other; they are Sports now. Month labels also round the way Polymarket's do.

A trader holding both sides of a market shows both, positions from splits appear, and the total P/L is now the figure on the trader's Polymarket profile.

Many sports and esports game markets do not appear in Polymarket's main market listing, so their trades went unnamed and uncounted. They are now read from Polymarket's events and counted like any other market.

Every market in the Bot API now carries its category, a trader-quality summary and the holders' records, plus the hand-picked wallets' view and a list of forming markets.

The outside data source for position changes made off the order book had stopped in April. They are now read directly from the Polygon chain.

Every chart now shares one look that follows the light or dark theme, and the third-party chart logo is gone.

The analytics page is now prepared in the background, so it opens at once instead of computing on each visit.

On a phone you can sign in and trade through the MetaMask app from any browser.

Buy and sell on Polymarket without leaving the market page: market and limit orders, plus split and merge. The site adds no fee of its own.

Accounts now sign in with a crypto wallet; usernames, passwords and email addresses are no longer used.

A live watchlist, your Polymarket positions next to the smart-money consensus, what changed for you, and a profit chart that matches your Polymarket profile.

One site-wide chat room, built into the page.

A documented API for bots you run yourself: the consensus markets, their holders and changes, with optional API keys.

A light theme, the option to install the site as an app, share images for pages, an Ending Today view and an Edge vs Crowd sort.

A scoreboard of how the smart money's sides did at resolution, a history chart on market pages and a last-24-hours card on trader pages.

Market and trader pages no longer scroll sideways on phones, and long trader names are shortened.

The full recount now runs every hour instead of once a day; in between, resolved markets drop off and a market that gains 5 tracked holders appears within about two minutes.

"What changed today" also lists the biggest sells, and market cards show the average price the consensus holders paid against the price now.

A strip on the homepage with the markets that reached a consensus in the last 24 hours, the consensus flips and the biggest buys.

A page of the wallets that just entered Polymarket's top 1,000 and what they traded; each trader carries a badge (Top 1000 with its rank, or Hand-picked), and the traders list can filter on it.

Filter the homepage by Politics, Sports, Crypto, Finance, Entertainment, Tech or Other.

The tracked set is now Polymarket's monthly top 1,000 by profit, re-read every hour, plus about 460 hand-picked wallets. Since October 3, a top-1,000 wallet with 10 or more settled markets in 90 days must have won at least 55% of them to count.

A round of work on the database and background jobs removed the site's regular freezes, and homepage prices now update live.

A trader page that took up to 40 seconds to open the first time now loads quickly, and the browser tab shows the trader's real name.

Recent trades were dated more than a month off, because block times were estimated with a drift. Times are now calibrated against the chain.

A win rate like 2,602 wins and 10 losses was rounded up to 100%; it now shows at most 99% whenever there is a loss.