Spread: Indiana (-8.5)

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Indiana (45%) · Indiana at 54¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 14

Indiana54¢USC46¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Indiana

Consensus Traders

Indiana 45%

Total Value

$9.1K

Combined PnL

$154.44

Smart Money Entry

51.4¢ → 53.5¢

+4% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralIndiana at 54%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Indiana

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Indiana54%

USC47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Indiana5 traders

Total Value$6.6K

Total Shares12,396

Combined PnL+$205.37

USC6 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares5,387

Combined PnL-$50.93

Indiana — 45%USC — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Mature

33h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Indiana. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on USC) and the top 1000 (10 on Indiana) disagree here.

whaleUSC 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUSC 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedUSC 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Indiana 50% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JU justwins	Indianaavg 50¢	$3.4K	$3.6K	+$202.71	50% 118-116 (234)
HO HomeRunHazard	Indianaavg 53¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	-$0.6	57% 3567-2709 (6276)
IM imjustkenisgheyCTR	USCavg 47¢	$2.2K	$2.1K	-$46.36	44% 26-33 (59)
MO monkeymashingkeyboard	Indianaavg 53¢	$465.99	$470.39	+$4.4	53% 535-466 (1001)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	USCavg 47¢	$189.88	$187.86	-$2.02	48% 269-290 (559)
VeryLucky888CTR	USCavg 49¢	$189.32	$88.95	-$3.87	53% 1179-1029 (2208)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Indianaavg 54¢	$65.87	$64.65	-$1.22	55% 250-204 (454)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	USCavg 45¢	$60.49	$61.84	+$1.34	48% 852-928 (1780)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	USCavg 46¢	$6.51	$6.58	+$0.07	36% 317-553 (870)
nigiri99CTR<$100	USCavg 48¢	$2.4	$2.3	-$0.1	52% 499-463 (962)
GH ghorrock<$100	Indianaavg 49¢	$1.07	$1.16	+$0.09	53% 1556-1404 (2960)

justwins

Indiana

Invested

$3,378.5

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$202.71

Record

50%

118-116 (234)

HomeRunHazard

Indiana

Invested

$2,490.21

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$0.6

Record

57%

3567-2709 (6276)

imjustkenisgheyCTR

USC

Invested

$2,178.85

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$46.36

Record

44%

26-33 (59)

monkeymashingkeyboard

Indiana

Invested

$465.99

Value

$470.39

PnL

+$4.4

Record

53%

535-466 (1001)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

USC

Invested

$189.88

Value

$187.86

PnL

-$2.02

Record

48%

269-290 (559)

VeryLucky888CTR

USC

Invested

$189.32

Value

$88.95

PnL

-$3.87

Record

53%

1179-1029 (2208)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Indiana

Invested

$65.87

Value

$64.65

PnL

-$1.22

Record

55%

250-204 (454)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

USC

Invested

$60.49

Value

$61.84

PnL

+$1.34

Record

48%

852-928 (1780)

GC-PCTR<$100

USC

Invested

$6.51

Value

$6.58

PnL

+$0.07

Record

36%

317-553 (870)

nigiri99CTR<$100

USC

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.3

PnL

-$0.1

Record

52%

499-463 (962)

ghorrock<$100

Indiana

Invested

$1.07

Value

$1.16

PnL

+$0.09

Record

53%

1556-1404 (2960)

Research grade

NeutralIndiana at 54%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Indiana

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Mature

33h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Indiana. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on USC) and the top 1000 (10 on Indiana) disagree here.

whaleUSC 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUSC 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedUSC 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Indiana 50% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Indiana wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.