Spread: Thunder (-6.5)

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Thunder (83%) · Thunder at 53¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 14

Thunder53¢Clippers47¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Thunder

Consensus Traders

Thunder 83%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.0K

Combined PnL

-$47

Smart Money Entry

52.4¢ → 52.5¢

+0% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidThunder at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Thunder

10 of 12 top traders (83%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Thunder53%

Clippers48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Thunder10 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares7,713

Combined PnL+$12.04

Clippers2 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,392

Combined PnL-$59.04

Thunder — 83%Clippers — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+65 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

85% of non-arb traders are on Thunder. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrThunder 75% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Thunder 85% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Thunderavg 53¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	-$19.8	52% 471-427 (898)
HO HomeRunHazard	Thunderavg 52.1¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$15.25	57% 3561-2704 (6265)
73 739633786CTR	Clippersavg 50¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$59.09	8% 17-199 (216)
HI hi774c	Thunderavg 52¢	$287.85	$290.61	+$2.77	21% 156-572 (728)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Thunderavg 52¢	$264.25	$266.88	+$2.63	59% 3648-2489 (6137)
└ Thunder leg	Thunderavg 52¢	$182	$183.75	+$1.75
└ Clippers leg	Clippersavg 47¢	$82.25	$83.13	+$0.88
GC GC-PARB<$100	Thunderavg 52¢	$235.25	$237.57	+$2.32	33% 251-499 (750)
└ Thunder leg	Thunderavg 52¢	$182	$183.75	+$1.75
└ Clippers leg	Clippersavg 47¢	$53.25	$53.82	+$0.57
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100	Thunderavg 50¢	$600	$198	-$2	75% 112-37 (149)
└ Thunder leg	Thunderavg 50¢	$100	$104	+$4
└ Clippers leg	Clippersavg 50¢	$100	$94	-$6
FO Forecastication2	Thunderavg 50¢	$130.99	$137.53	+$6.55	45% 214-259 (473)
PU purplegatto<$100	Thunderavg 50¢	$84	$88.2	+$4.2	68% 2627-1220 (3847)
SU suntori<$100	Thunderavg 50¢	$47.61	$49.51	+$1.9	46% 2084-2445 (4529)
38 38791873984189<$100	Thunderavg 53¢	$48.76	$47.84	-$0.92	48% 2786-3040 (5826)
MA MadridTime<$100	Thunderavg 50¢	$35.23	$36.64	+$1.41	36% 761-1361 (2122)
PA Pan9X<$100	Thunderavg 50.6¢	$18.74	$19.43	+$0.68	49% 1306-1355 (2661)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Thunderavg 52¢	$5.2	$5.2	+$0	40% 584-893 (1477)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Clippersavg 46¢	$2.3	$2.35	+$0.05	34% 735-1404 (2139)

nigiri99

Thunder

Invested

$2,099.33

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$19.8

Record

52%

471-427 (898)

HomeRunHazard

Thunder

Invested

$1,364.64

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$15.25

Record

57%

3561-2704 (6265)

739633786CTR

Clippers

Invested

$1,193.02

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$59.09

Record

17-199 (216)

hi774c

Thunder

Invested

$287.85

Value

$290.61

PnL

+$2.77

Record

21%

156-572 (728)

NM-PARB<$100

Thunder

Invested

$264.25

Value

$266.88

PnL

+$2.63

Record

59%

3648-2489 (6137)

Both legs:

Thunder$18252¢+$1.75

Clippers$82.2547¢+$0.88

GC-PARB<$100

Thunder

Invested

$235.25

Value

$237.57

PnL

+$2.32

Record

33%

251-499 (750)

Both legs:

Thunder$18252¢+$1.75

Clippers$53.2547¢+$0.57

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100

Thunder

Invested

$600

Value

$198

PnL

-$2

Record

75%

112-37 (149)

Both legs:

Invested

$130.99

Value

$137.53

PnL

+$6.55

Record

45%

214-259 (473)

purplegatto<$100

Thunder

Invested

$84

Value

$88.2

PnL

+$4.2

Record

68%

2627-1220 (3847)

suntori<$100

Thunder

Invested

$47.61

Value

$49.51

PnL

+$1.9

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

38791873984189<$100

Thunder

Invested

$48.76

Value

$47.84

PnL

-$0.92

Record

48%

2786-3040 (5826)

MadridTime<$100

Thunder

Invested

$35.23

Value

$36.64

PnL

+$1.41

Record

36%

761-1361 (2122)

Pan9X<$100

Thunder

Invested

$18.74

Value

$19.43

PnL

+$0.68

Record

49%

1306-1355 (2661)

ameisgoat11<$100

Thunder

Invested

$5.2

Value

$5.2

PnL

+$0

Record

40%

584-893 (1477)

VenusianCTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$2.3

Value

$2.35

PnL

+$0.05

Record

34%

735-1404 (2139)

Research grade

AvoidThunder at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Thunder

10 of 12 top traders (83%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+65 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

85% of non-arb traders are on Thunder. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrThunder 75% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Thunder 85% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Thunder wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.