Spread: Alabama (-16.5)

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Vanderbilt (38%) · Vanderbilt at 56¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 14

Alabama45¢Vanderbilt55¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Vanderbilt

Consensus Traders

Vanderbilt 38%

Total Value

$5.5K

Combined PnL

-$6.93

Smart Money Entry

53.3¢ → 55.5¢

+4% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralVanderbilt at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Vanderbilt

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Alabama45%

Vanderbilt56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Vanderbilt3 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares5,918

Combined PnL+$132.49

Alabama5 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares5,141

Combined PnL-$139.42

Vanderbilt — 38%Alabama — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Vanderbilt. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleVanderbilt 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperVanderbilt 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrVanderbilt 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Alabama 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Vanderbiltavg 54.4¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$39.95	57% 3567-2709 (6276)
38 38791873984189CTR	Alabamaavg 46.9¢	$2.2K	$2.1K	-$134.78	48% 2922-3218 (6140)
0x16bb9951a36fce71e2ef57890b786145e0ba8492	Vanderbiltavg 53¢	$635.51	$665.49	+$29.98	0% 0-325 (325)
nigiri99	Vanderbiltavg 49.1¢	$479.12	$541.68	+$62.56	52% 499-463 (962)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Alabamaavg 45¢	$104.7	$102.38	-$2.33	37% 819-1385 (2204)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Alabamaavg 45¢	$76.73	$75.02	-$1.7	50% 3678-3623 (7301)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Alabamaavg 46¢	$13.91	$13.31	-$0.6	53% 1556-1404 (2960)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Alabamaavg 44¢	$3.91	$3.91	+$0	36% 317-553 (870)

HomeRunHazard

Vanderbilt

Invested

$2,037.11

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$39.95

Record

57%

3567-2709 (6276)

38791873984189CTR

Alabama

Invested

$2,202.34

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$134.78

Record

48%

2922-3218 (6140)

0x16bb9951a36fce71e2ef57890b786145e0ba8492

Vanderbilt

Invested

$635.51

Value

$665.49

PnL

+$29.98

Record

0-325 (325)

nigiri99

Vanderbilt

Invested

$479.12

Value

$541.68

PnL

+$62.56

Record

52%

499-463 (962)

topdogbigboiCTR

Alabama

Invested

$104.7

Value

$102.38

PnL

-$2.33

Record

37%

819-1385 (2204)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Alabama

Invested

$76.73

Value

$75.02

PnL

-$1.7

Record

50%

3678-3623 (7301)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Alabama

Invested

$13.91

Value

$13.31

PnL

-$0.6

Record

53%

1556-1404 (2960)

GC-PCTR<$100

Alabama

Invested

$3.91

Value

$3.91

PnL

+$0

Record

36%

317-553 (870)

Research grade

NeutralVanderbilt at 56%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Vanderbilt

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Vanderbilt. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleVanderbilt 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperVanderbilt 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrVanderbilt 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Alabama 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Vanderbilt wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.