Spread: Indiana (-7.5)
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Indiana (40%) · Indiana at 56¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Indiana
5
Indiana 40%
$10.8K
-$33.4
55¢ → 56.5¢
+3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralIndiana at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Indiana. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Indianaavg 55¢ | $5.5K | $5.7K | +$153.09 | 57% 3221-2431 (5652) |
IM imjustkenisgheyCTR | USCavg 45¢ | $5.0K | $4.8K | -$165.16 | 52% 14-13 (27) |
38 38791873984189CTR | USCavg 46.9¢ | $253.06 | $234.79 | -$18.27 | 48% 1398-1531 (2929) |
RL RLWGCTR<$100 | USCavg 47¢ | $51.7 | $47.85 | -$3.85 | 67% 1654-809 (2463) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Indianaavg 47¢ | $4.7 | $5.5 | +$0.8 | 55% 641-522 (1163) |
Invested
$5,530.3
Value
$5.7K
PnL
+$153.09
Record
57%
3221-2431 (5652)
Invested
$4,951.97
Value
$4.8K
PnL
-$165.16
Record
52%
14-13 (27)
Invested
$253.06
Value
$234.79
PnL
-$18.27
Record
48%
1398-1531 (2929)
Invested
$51.7
Value
$47.85
PnL
-$3.85
Record
67%
1654-809 (2463)
Invested
$4.7
Value
$5.5
PnL
+$0.8
Record
55%
641-522 (1163)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.