Trail Blazers vs. Kings

10 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold Trail Blazers (45%) · Trail Blazers at 82¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 14

Trail Blazers82¢Kings18¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Trail Blazers

Consensus Traders

Trail Blazers 45%

Total Value

$9.4K

Combined PnL

-$33.24

Smart Money Entry

81.1¢ → 81.5¢

+1% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 82%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

10 of 22 top traders (45%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Trail Blazers82%

Kings19%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Trail Blazers10 traders

Total Value$6.9K

Total Shares8,503

Combined PnL+$20

Kings12 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares13,080

Combined PnL-$53.24

Trail Blazers — 45%Kings — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Mature

37h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Kings) and the top 1000 (19 on Trail Blazers) disagree here.

sharpTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrKings 64% · 11

Diverging

Hand-pickedKings 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Trail Blazers 53% · 19

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA darkumbreon88	Trail Blazersavg 81¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	+$17.39	61% 1003-631 (1634)
HO HomeRunHazard	Trail Blazersavg 82¢	$2.3K	$2.2K	-$26.78	57% 3561-2704 (6265)
nigiri99CTR	Kingsavg 19¢	$6.7K	$1.6K	-$79.28	52% 471-427 (898)
VeryLucky888CTR	Kingsavg 18¢	$1.8K	$647.5	+$32.5	53% 1030-921 (1951)
SE sentrio	Trail Blazersavg 81¢	$508.95	$512.09	+$3.14	43% 808-1065 (1873)
AA aaabbb	Trail Blazersavg 82¢	$492	$489	-$3	— 6-3 (9)
SU suntori	Trail Blazersavg 77.1¢	$393.29	$413.06	+$19.77	46% 2084-2445 (4529)
OD Oddstorm	Trail Blazersavg 78.4¢	$333.29	$299.06	+$10.84	30% 77-180 (257)
FE ferdinand2	Trail Blazersavg 82¢	$101.68	$100.44	-$1.24	49% 1668-1706 (3374)
RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100	Kingsavg 22¢	$65.4	$56.48	-$8.92	17% 55-264 (319)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Kingsavg 19¢	$46.01	$44.8	-$1.21	35% 735-1379 (2114)
0xheavy888<$100	Trail Blazersavg 81.5¢	$32.6	$32.4	-$0.2	53% 388-339 (727)
38 38791873984189CTR	Kingsavg 18¢	$484.99	$19.87	+$8	48% 2786-3040 (5826)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Kingsavg 18¢	$17.42	$18.39	+$0.97	59% 3648-2489 (6137)
GH ghorrock<$100	Trail Blazersavg 81¢	$7.71	$7.71	+$0	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Kingsavg 19¢	$7.58	$7.38	-$0.2	34% 735-1404 (2139)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Kingsavg 19¢	$7.44	$7.24	-$0.2	36% 761-1361 (2122)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Kingsavg 19¢	$3.83	$3.83	+$0	35% 749-1385 (2134)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Kingsavg 25¢	$5	$3.8	-$1.2	58% 3426-2517 (5943)
HY hydra1248<$100	Trail Blazersavg 78¢	$2.2	$2.28	+$0.08	76% 147-47 (194)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Kingsavg 21¢	$36.48	$1.3	-$3.76	49% 1306-1355 (2661)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Kingsavg 18¢	$0.9	$0.95	+$0.05	40% 584-893 (1477)

darkumbreon88

Trail Blazers

Invested

$2,817.08

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$17.39

Record

61%

1003-631 (1634)

HomeRunHazard

Trail Blazers

Invested

$2,267.9

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$26.78

Record

57%

3561-2704 (6265)

nigiri99CTR

Kings

Invested

$6,665.71

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$79.28

Record

52%

471-427 (898)

VeryLucky888CTR

Kings

Invested

$1,844.99

Value

$647.5

PnL

+$32.5

Record

53%

1030-921 (1951)

sentrio

Trail Blazers

Invested

$508.95

Value

$512.09

PnL

+$3.14

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

aaabbb

Trail Blazers

Invested

$492

Value

$489

PnL

-$3

Record

—

6-3 (9)

suntori

Trail Blazers

Invested

$393.29

Value

$413.06

PnL

+$19.77

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

Oddstorm

Trail Blazers

Invested

$333.29

Value

$299.06

PnL

+$10.84

Record

30%

77-180 (257)

ferdinand2

Trail Blazers

Invested

$101.68

Value

$100.44

PnL

-$1.24

Record

49%

1668-1706 (3374)

RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$65.4

Value

$56.48

PnL

-$8.92

Record

17%

55-264 (319)

LimousinCTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$46.01

Value

$44.8

PnL

-$1.21

Record

35%

735-1379 (2114)

0xheavy888<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$32.6

Value

$32.4

PnL

-$0.2

Record

53%

388-339 (727)

38791873984189CTR

Kings

Invested

$484.99

Value

$19.87

PnL

+$8

Record

48%

2786-3040 (5826)

NM-PCTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$17.42

Value

$18.39

PnL

+$0.97

Record

59%

3648-2489 (6137)

ghorrock<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$7.71

Value

$7.71

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

VenusianCTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$7.58

Value

$7.38

PnL

-$0.2

Record

34%

735-1404 (2139)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$7.44

Value

$7.24

PnL

-$0.2

Record

36%

761-1361 (2122)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$3.83

Value

$3.83

PnL

+$0

Record

35%

749-1385 (2134)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Kings

Invested

Value

$3.8

PnL

-$1.2

Record

58%

3426-2517 (5943)

hydra1248<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$2.2

Value

$2.28

PnL

+$0.08

Record

76%

147-47 (194)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$36.48

Value

$1.3

PnL

-$3.76

Record

49%

1306-1355 (2661)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$0.9

Value

$0.95

PnL

+$0.05

Record

40%

584-893 (1477)

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 82%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

10 of 22 top traders (45%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Mature

37h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Kings) and the top 1000 (19 on Trail Blazers) disagree here.

sharpTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrKings 64% · 11

Diverging

Hand-pickedKings 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Trail Blazers 53% · 19

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Trail Blazers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.2%

81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.