Warriors vs. Spurs

1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Spurs (20%) · Spurs at 72¢ · $398 held · ends Nov 14

Warriors28¢Spurs72¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Spurs

Consensus Traders

Spurs 20%

Total Value

$397.92

Combined PnL

-$17.98

Research grade

AvoidSpurs at 72%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Spurs

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Warriors28%

Spurs72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Spurs1 trader

Total Value$288.46

Total Shares365

Combined PnL+$9.34

Warriors4 traders

Total Value$109.47

Total Shares447

Combined PnL-$27.32

Spurs — 20%Warriors — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OD Oddstorm	Spursavg 72.1¢	$279.12	$288.46	+$9.34	15% 16-94 (110)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Warriorsavg 32¢	$79.59	$61	-$18.59	52% 126-116 (242)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Warriorsavg 31¢	$33.39	$26.39	-$7	47% 148-167 (315)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Warriorsavg 26.3¢	$22.38	$20.83	-$1.55	49% 435-456 (891)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Warriorsavg 28¢	$1.43	$1.25	-$0.18	51% 3167-3069 (6236)

Oddstorm

Spurs

Invested

$279.12

Value

$288.46

PnL

+$9.34

Record

15%

16-94 (110)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Warriors

Invested

$79.59

Value

$61

PnL

-$18.59

Record

52%

126-116 (242)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Warriors

Invested

$33.39

Value

$26.39

PnL

-$7

Record

47%

148-167 (315)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Warriors

Invested

$22.38

Value

$20.83

PnL

-$1.55

Record

49%

435-456 (891)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Warriors

Invested

$1.43

Value

$1.25

PnL

-$0.18

Record

51%

3167-3069 (6236)

Research grade

AvoidSpurs at 72%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Spurs

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Spurs wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.0%

72.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$35.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

135.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.