Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Dolphins, while the market favors Colts (56%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Dolphins vs. Colts
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Dolphins (57%) · Dolphins at 44¢ · $876 held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
Dolphins
7
Dolphins 57%
$875.92
$7.33
43.5¢ → 43.5¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralDolphins at 44%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Colts 56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-23 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 74%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
57% of non-arb traders are on Dolphins. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OD Oddstorm | Coltsavg 56¢ | $240.24 | $242.39 | +$2.15 | 2% 1-63 (64) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Dolphinsavg 43¢ | $201 | $203.34 | +$2.34 | 48% 77-85 (162) |
GA GaditimaCTR | Dolphinsavg 45.2¢ | $180.99 | $174 | -$6.99 | 49% 41-42 (83) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Dolphinsavg 42¢ | $115.79 | $119.84 | +$4.05 | 48% 436-463 (899) |
BO BoomLaLa | Coltsavg 53.9¢ | $105.72 | $110.72 | +$5 | 8% 11-120 (131) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Dolphinsavg 42¢ | $13.29 | $13.77 | +$0.47 | 51% 507-483 (990) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Coltsavg 55¢ | $11.55 | $11.87 | +$0.32 | 49% 194-203 (397) |
Invested
$240.24
Value
$242.39
PnL
+$2.15
Record
2%
1-63 (64)
Invested
$201
Value
$203.34
PnL
+$2.34
Record
48%
77-85 (162)
Invested
$180.99
Value
$174
PnL
-$6.99
Record
49%
41-42 (83)
Invested
$115.79
Value
$119.84
PnL
+$4.05
Record
48%
436-463 (899)
Invested
$105.72
Value
$110.72
PnL
+$5
Record
8%
11-120 (131)
Invested
$13.29
Value
$13.77
PnL
+$0.47
Record
51%
507-483 (990)
Invested
$11.55
Value
$11.87
PnL
+$0.32
Record
49%
194-203 (397)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.