California-San Diego Tritons vs. Utah State Aggies

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Utah State Aggies (63%) · Utah State Aggies at 89¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 14

California-San Diego Tritons12¢Utah State Aggies88¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Utah State Aggies

Consensus Traders

Utah State Aggies 63%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$24.34

Smart Money Entry

88¢ → 88.5¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUtah State Aggies at 89%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Utah State Aggies

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

California-San Diego Tritons12%

Utah State Aggies89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Utah State Aggies5 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,617

Combined PnL+$14.86

California-San Diego Tritons3 traders

Total Value$132.31

Total Shares1,124

Combined PnL+$9.48

Utah State Aggies — 63%California-San Diego Tritons — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Utah State Aggies. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCalifornia-San Diego Tritons 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUtah State Aggies 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Utah State Aggies 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Utah State Aggiesavg 87.9¢	$728.58	$739.06	+$10.47	57% 3561-2704 (6265)
0xheavy888	Utah State Aggiesavg 88¢	$634.16	$637.76	+$3.6	53% 388-339 (727)
FO forecastication4<$100	Utah State Aggiesavg 88¢	$93.24	$93.9	+$0.67	31% 134-299 (433)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	California-San Diego Tritonsavg 10¢	$53.54	$64.24	+$10.71	36% 326-587 (913)
nigiri99CTR<$100	California-San Diego Tritonsavg 12¢	$62.4	$59.8	-$2.6	52% 471-427 (898)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Utah State Aggiesavg 88¢	$11.44	$11.51	+$0.07	55% 248-199 (447)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Utah State Aggiesavg 88¢	$8.8	$8.85	+$0.05	40% 584-893 (1477)
HI hi774cCTR<$100	California-San Diego Tritonsavg 10¢	$6.89	$8.27	+$1.38	21% 156-572 (728)

HomeRunHazard

Utah State Aggies

Invested

$728.58

Value

$739.06

PnL

+$10.47

Record

57%

3561-2704 (6265)

0xheavy888

Utah State Aggies

Invested

$634.16

Value

$637.76

PnL

+$3.6

Record

53%

388-339 (727)

forecastication4<$100

Utah State Aggies

Invested

$93.24

Value

$93.9

PnL

+$0.67

Record

31%

134-299 (433)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

California-San Diego Tritons

Invested

$53.54

Value

$64.24

PnL

+$10.71

Record

36%

326-587 (913)

nigiri99CTR<$100

California-San Diego Tritons

Invested

$62.4

Value

$59.8

PnL

-$2.6

Record

52%

471-427 (898)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Utah State Aggies

Invested

$11.44

Value

$11.51

PnL

+$0.07

Record

55%

248-199 (447)

ameisgoat11<$100

Utah State Aggies

Invested

$8.8

Value

$8.85

PnL

+$0.05

Record

40%

584-893 (1477)

hi774cCTR<$100

California-San Diego Tritons

Invested

$6.89

Value

$8.27

PnL

+$1.38

Record

21%

156-572 (728)

Research grade

AvoidUtah State Aggies at 89%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Utah State Aggies

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Utah State Aggies. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCalifornia-San Diego Tritons 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUtah State Aggies 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Utah State Aggies 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Utah State Aggies wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.0%

88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.