Spread: James Madison (-6.5)
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold UConn (33%) · UConn at 55¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
UConn
6
UConn 33%
$4.0K
$13.3
54¢ → 54.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUConn at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | UConnavg 54¢ | $2.1K | $2.2K | +$39.32 | 57% 3561-2704 (6265) |
 nigiri99CTR | James Madisonavg 46¢ | $1.3K | $1.2K | -$13.72 | 52% 471-427 (898) |
38 38791873984189CTR | James Madisonavg 46¢ | $734.26 | $618.99 | -$12.24 | 48% 2786-3040 (5826) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | James Madisonavg 46¢ | $3.55 | $3.47 | -$0.08 | 53% 1326-1186 (2512) |
HI hi774cCTR<$100 | James Madisonavg 45¢ | $1.6 | $1.6 | -$0 | 21% 156-572 (728) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100 | UConnavg 54¢ | $1.17 | $1.2 | +$0.02 | 55% 248-199 (447) |
Invested
$2,123.28
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$39.32
Record
57%
3561-2704 (6265)
nigiri99CTRInvested
$1,262.7
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$13.72
Record
52%
471-427 (898)
Invested
$734.26
Value
$618.99
PnL
-$12.24
Record
48%
2786-3040 (5826)
Invested
$3.55
Value
$3.47
PnL
-$0.08
Record
53%
1326-1186 (2512)
Invested
$1.6
Value
$1.6
PnL
-$0
Record
21%
156-572 (728)
Invested
$1.17
Value
$1.2
PnL
+$0.02
Record
55%
248-199 (447)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.