Spread: Houston (-6.5)

5 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Houston (33%) · Houston at 60¢ · $14K held · ended Nov 14

Houston60¢Colorado40¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Houston

Consensus Traders

Houston 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.8K

Combined PnL

$166.94

Smart Money Entry

58.4¢ → 59.5¢

+2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralHouston at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Houston

5 of 15 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Houston60%

Colorado41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Houston5 traders

Total Value$8.1K

Total Shares13,556

Combined PnL+$153.74

Colorado10 traders

Total Value$5.0K

Total Shares11,841

Combined PnL+$13.2

Houston — 33%Colorado — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Houston. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleHouston 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrColorado 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedColorado 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Colorado 78% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Houstonavg 58.1¢	$7.2K	$7.4K	+$169.85	52% 499-463 (962)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Coloradoavg 42¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	+$2.01	57% 3567-2709 (6276)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Coloradoavg 41¢	$863	$729.76	-$7.27	48% 2922-3218 (6140)
└ Colorado leg	Coloradoavg 41¢	$437.15	$432.26	-$4.77
└ Houston leg	Houstonavg 60¢	$300	$297.5	-$2.5
VeryLucky888CTR	Coloradoavg 42¢	$604.67	$604.67	-$0	53% 1179-1029 (2208)
RN1	Houstonavg 61.7¢	$464.7	$448.47	-$16.23	56% 5043-4004 (9047)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Coloradoavg 42¢	$389.76	$394.4	+$4.64	48% 269-290 (559)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Coloradoavg 42¢	$336	$336	+$0	23% 293-989 (1282)
PR primmCTR	Coloradoavg 40¢	$295.2	$302.58	+$7.38	59% 899-622 (1521)
65 6512395314597884	Houstonavg 59.5¢	$238	$238	+$0	50% 3678-3623 (7301)
CUTJALENHURTSCTR	Coloradoavg 41¢	$227.03	$224.26	-$2.77	52% 2623-2458 (5081)
VE VenusianCTR	Coloradoavg 41¢	$106.44	$109.04	+$2.6	36% 890-1596 (2486)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Coloradoavg 42¢	$76.02	$76.02	+$0	55% 250-204 (454)
PA Pan9X<$100	Houstonavg 60¢	$22.8	$22.61	-$0.19	49% 1329-1376 (2705)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Coloradoavg 43¢	$22.79	$22.26	-$0.53	40% 144-212 (356)
GH ghorrock<$100	Houstonavg 59¢	$10.91	$11.22	+$0.31	53% 1556-1404 (2960)
AM AmericaFirst1CTR<$100	Coloradoavg 41¢	$10.68	$10.55	-$0.13	47% 72-82 (154)

nigiri99

Houston

Invested

$7,181.37

Value

$7.4K

PnL

+$169.85

Record

52%

499-463 (962)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Colorado

Invested

$2,880.03

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$2.01

Record

57%

3567-2709 (6276)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Colorado

Invested

$863

Value

$729.76

PnL

-$7.27

Record

48%

2922-3218 (6140)

Both legs:

Colorado$437.1541¢-$4.77

Houston$30060¢-$2.5

VeryLucky888CTR

Colorado

Invested

$604.67

Value

$604.67

PnL

-$0

Record

53%

1179-1029 (2208)

RN1

Houston

Invested

$464.7

Value

$448.47

PnL

-$16.23

Record

56%

5043-4004 (9047)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Colorado

Invested

$389.76

Value

$394.4

PnL

+$4.64

Record

48%

269-290 (559)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Colorado

Invested

$336

Value

$336

PnL

+$0

Record

23%

293-989 (1282)

primmCTR

Colorado

Invested

$295.2

Value

$302.58

PnL

+$7.38

Record

59%

899-622 (1521)

6512395314597884

Houston

Invested

$238

Value

$238

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

3678-3623 (7301)

CUTJALENHURTSCTR

Colorado

Invested

$227.03

Value

$224.26

PnL

-$2.77

Record

52%

2623-2458 (5081)

VenusianCTR

Colorado

Invested

$106.44

Value

$109.04

PnL

+$2.6

Record

36%

890-1596 (2486)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Colorado

Invested

$76.02

Value

$76.02

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

250-204 (454)

Pan9X<$100

Houston

Invested

$22.8

Value

$22.61

PnL

-$0.19

Record

49%

1329-1376 (2705)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Colorado

Invested

$22.79

Value

$22.26

PnL

-$0.53

Record

40%

144-212 (356)

ghorrock<$100

Houston

Invested

$10.91

Value

$11.22

PnL

+$0.31

Record

53%

1556-1404 (2960)

AmericaFirst1CTR<$100

Colorado

Invested

$10.68

Value

$10.55

PnL

-$0.13

Record

47%

72-82 (154)

Research grade

NeutralHouston at 60%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Houston

5 of 15 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Houston. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleHouston 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrColorado 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedColorado 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Colorado 78% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Houston wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.7%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.