Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Titans, while the market favors Jaguars (50%). 0 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Jaguars (-10.5)
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Titans (17%) · Titans at 50¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
Titans
6
Titans 17%
$4.7K
-$13.9
Research grade
NeutralTitans at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)Underdog side (market favors Jaguars 50%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
17% of non-arb traders are on Titans. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xaBea08725590a4C6Ae7c8E63214C9628BbC772AE-1781431873018 | Titansavg 52.3¢ | $2.6K | $2.6K | -$13.85 | 0% 0-57 (57) |
 VeryLucky888 | Jaguarsavg 48¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$0 | 49% 235-240 (475) |
SN SnakeBall | Jaguarsavg 48.5¢ | $433.44 | $429.03 | -$4.41 | 47% 148-167 (315) |
38 38791873984189 | Jaguarsavg 47¢ | $205.39 | $209.76 | +$4.37 | 48% 879-959 (1838) |
OD Oddstorm<$100 | Jaguarsavg 48¢ | $6.08 | $6.08 | -$0 | 15% 16-94 (110) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Jaguarsavg 48¢ | $2.88 | $2.88 | +$0 | 48% 424-451 (875) |
Invested
$2,636.14
Value
$2.6K
PnL
-$13.85
Record
0%
0-57 (57)
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,440
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
235-240 (475)
Invested
$433.44
Value
$429.03
PnL
-$4.41
Record
47%
148-167 (315)
Invested
$205.39
Value
$209.76
PnL
+$4.37
Record
48%
879-959 (1838)
Invested
$6.08
Value
$6.08
PnL
-$0
Record
15%
16-94 (110)
Invested
$2.88
Value
$2.88
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
424-451 (875)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.