Spread: Rockets (-16.5)

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Jazz (89%) · Jazz at 53¢ · $522 held · ends Nov 14

Rockets48¢Jazz52¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Jazz

Consensus Traders

Jazz 89%

Total Value

$522.27

Combined PnL

$5.67

Smart Money Entry

51.6¢ → 52.5¢

+2% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Rockets48%

Jazz53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jazz8 traders

Total Value$423.04

Total Shares802

Combined PnL+$9.56

Rockets1 trader

Total Value$99.23

Total Shares195

Combined PnL-$3.89

Jazz — 89%Rockets — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Jazz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrJazz 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Jazz 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Jazzavg 51¢	$172.8	$179.57	+$6.78	57% 3561-2704 (6265)
38 38791873984189	Jazzavg 53¢	$152.11	$150.68	-$1.44	48% 2786-3040 (5826)
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCFCTR	Rocketsavg 53¢	$103.12	$99.23	-$3.89	38% 17-28 (45)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Jazzavg 48¢	$31.2	$34.45	+$3.25	45% 214-259 (473)
nigiri99<$100	Jazzavg 53¢	$29.68	$29.4	-$0.28	52% 471-427 (898)
PA Pan9X<$100	Jazzavg 53¢	$13.25	$13.13	-$0.13	49% 1306-1355 (2661)
VE Venusian<$100	Jazzavg 48¢	$10.46	$11.55	+$1.09	34% 735-1404 (2139)
SU suntori<$100	Jazzavg 48¢	$2.85	$3.15	+$0.3	46% 2084-2445 (4529)
MU Multicoloured-Serf<$100	Jazzavg 53¢	$1.13	$1.12	-$0.01	49% 611-642 (1253)

HomeRunHazard

Jazz

Invested

$172.8

Value

$179.57

PnL

+$6.78

Record

57%

3561-2704 (6265)

38791873984189

Jazz

Invested

$152.11

Value

$150.68

PnL

-$1.44

Record

48%

2786-3040 (5826)

QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCFCTR

Rockets

Invested

$103.12

Value

$99.23

PnL

-$3.89

Record

38%

17-28 (45)

Forecastication2<$100

Jazz

Invested

$31.2

Value

$34.45

PnL

+$3.25

Record

45%

214-259 (473)

nigiri99<$100

Jazz

Invested

$29.68

Value

$29.4

PnL

-$0.28

Record

52%

471-427 (898)

Pan9X<$100

Jazz

Invested

$13.25

Value

$13.13

PnL

-$0.13

Record

49%

1306-1355 (2661)

Venusian<$100

Jazz

Invested

$10.46

Value

$11.55

PnL

+$1.09

Record

34%

735-1404 (2139)

suntori<$100

Jazz

Invested

$2.85

Value

$3.15

PnL

+$0.3

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

Multicoloured-Serf<$100

Jazz

Invested

$1.13

Value

$1.12

PnL

-$0.01

Record

49%

611-642 (1253)

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Jazz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrJazz 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Jazz 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jazz wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.