Known as longliveapples since Nov 13 2026 · Previously known as: longliveapples (Nov 9 – Nov 13 2026)
Consensus PnL $89 · no settled consensus market yet · was PM monthly #992 · holds 8 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$89.01
Record
0W / 0L
Win Rate
—
Batting Avg
100.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1586
Source
PM monthly #992
Record (90 d)
0/0
Trades
80
Markets
18
Volume
$959.58
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Top consensus positions
8 in listed consensus markets · 6 of 8 on the consensus side (75%)- Will Navdeep Bains win the 2026 Ontario Liberal Party leadership election?Yes $189 · now 25¢ · in at 14¢with the consensus (40% of 15)
- Will voter turnout be 70% or higher in the 2026 Spanish general election?No $186 · now 48¢ · in at 74¢with the consensus (67% of 9)
- Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MI-08 House election by 10%-15%?Yes $161 · now 97¢ · in at 89¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
- Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most mayoral elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?Yes $144 · now 61¢ · in at 50¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
- Will Lee Fairclough win the 2026 Ontario Liberal Party leadership election?No $95 · now 25¢ · in at 17¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Édouard Philippe be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Yes $82 · now 54¢ · in at 68¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Antti Lindtman be the next Prime Minister of Finland?Yes $80 · now 69¢ · in at 65¢with the consensus (60% of 5)
- Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Nevada gubernatorial election by 3%-6%?No $19 · now 100¢ · in at 85¢with the consensus (40% of 5)
Specialties
2 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 68¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where longliveapples's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 0%
- 30–50¢: 0%
- 50–70¢: 50%(won 100% of 1)
- 70¢ and up: 50%(won 100% of 1)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.