Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (52%). 9 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Hawks vs. Bulls: O/U 246.5

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (75%) · Over at 49¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 14

Over49¢Under51¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 75%

Total Value

$7.1K

Combined PnL

-$63.54

Smart Money Entry

48.8¢ → 48.5¢

-1% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 12 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Under 52%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over49%

Under52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares6,732

Combined PnL-$0.36

Over9 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares7,688

Combined PnL-$63.18

Under — 25%Over — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Over 75% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 51¢	$3.4K	$3.4K	+$0	51% 2261-2214 (4475)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 48.9¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	-$48.42	57% 3561-2704 (6265)
FO Forecastication2CTR	Overavg 47.5¢	$335.35	$338.88	+$3.53	45% 214-259 (473)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Overavg 49¢	$286.85	$280.81	-$6.03	36% 761-1361 (2122)
OD OddstormCTR	Overavg 49¢	$244.02	$239.04	-$4.98	30% 77-180 (257)
NM NM-PCTR	Overavg 49¢	$171.5	$168	-$3.5	59% 3648-2489 (6137)
GC GC-PCTR	Overavg 49¢	$171.5	$168	-$3.5	33% 251-499 (750)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 48.3¢	$22.88	$22.99	+$0.11	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$27.7	$12.3	-$0.4	49% 1306-1355 (2661)
0xheavy888<$100	Underavg 51¢	$11.24	$11.24	-$0	53% 388-339 (727)
SU suntori<$100	Underavg 53¢	$9.52	$9.16	-$0.36	46% 2084-2445 (4529)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$0.92	$0.93	+$0.01	43% 808-1065 (1873)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$3,412.87

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

2261-2214 (4475)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$2,531.46

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$48.42

Record

57%

3561-2704 (6265)

Forecastication2CTR

Over

Invested

$335.35

Value

$338.88

PnL

+$3.53

Record

45%

214-259 (473)

MadridTimeCTR

Over

Invested

$286.85

Value

$280.81

PnL

-$6.03

Record

36%

761-1361 (2122)

OddstormCTR

Over

Invested

$244.02

Value

$239.04

PnL

-$4.98

Record

30%

77-180 (257)

NM-PCTR

Over

Invested

$171.5

Value

$168

PnL

-$3.5

Record

59%

3648-2489 (6137)

GC-PCTR

Over

Invested

$171.5

Value

$168

PnL

-$3.5

Record

33%

251-499 (750)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$22.88

Value

$22.99

PnL

+$0.11

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$27.7

Value

$12.3

PnL

-$0.4

Record

49%

1306-1355 (2661)

0xheavy888<$100

Under

Invested

$11.24

Value

$11.24

PnL

-$0

Record

53%

388-339 (727)

suntori<$100

Under

Invested

$9.52

Value

$9.16

PnL

-$0.36

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.92

Value

$0.93

PnL

+$0.01

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 12 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Under 52%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Over 75% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.