Spread: Trail Blazers (-10.5)

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Kings (45%) · Kings at 52¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 14

Trail Blazers49¢Kings51¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Kings

Consensus Traders

Kings 45%

Total Value

$6.7K

Combined PnL

-$9.97

Smart Money Entry

51.1¢ → 51.5¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidKings at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kings

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Trail Blazers49%

Kings52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kings5 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares8,619

Combined PnL+$50.97

Trail Blazers6 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares4,501

Combined PnL-$60.95

Kings — 45%Trail Blazers — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Kings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleKings 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrTrail Blazers 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Trail Blazers 55% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Kingsavg 52¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	-$21.97	53% 472-427 (899)
MO monkeymashingkeyboard	Kingsavg 52¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$0.92	53% 535-466 (1001)
73 739633786CTR	Trail Blazersavg 48¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$12.25	8% 17-199 (216)
HO HomeRunHazard	Kingsavg 46¢	$583.62	$656.15	+$72.52	57% 3561-2704 (6265)
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCFCTR	Trail Blazersavg 54¢	$657.73	$584.64	-$73.08	38% 17-28 (45)
GC GC-PCTR	Trail Blazersavg 47.8¢	$218.88	$219.96	+$1.08	33% 251-499 (750)
NM NM-PCTR	Trail Blazersavg 48¢	$168	$168	+$0	59% 3648-2489 (6137)
38 38791873984189<$100	Kingsavg 52¢	$47.84	$47.84	-$0	48% 2787-3042 (5829)
PA Pan9X<$100	Kingsavg 52¢	$39.02	$23.52	-$0.5	49% 1307-1356 (2663)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 53¢	$10.6	$9.6	-$1	53% 390-340 (730)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 52¢	$2.6	$2.4	-$0.2	40% 589-893 (1482)

nigiri99

Kings

Invested

$2,284.88

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$21.97

Record

53%

472-427 (899)

monkeymashingkeyboard

Kings

Invested

$1,487.23

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$0.92

Record

53%

535-466 (1001)

739633786CTR

Trail Blazers

Invested

$1,176

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$12.25

Record

17-199 (216)

HomeRunHazard

Kings

Invested

$583.62

Value

$656.15

PnL

+$72.52

Record

57%

3561-2704 (6265)

QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCFCTR

Trail Blazers

Invested

$657.73

Value

$584.64

PnL

-$73.08

Record

38%

17-28 (45)

GC-PCTR

Trail Blazers

Invested

$218.88

Value

$219.96

PnL

+$1.08

Record

33%

251-499 (750)

NM-PCTR

Trail Blazers

Invested

$168

Value

$168

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

3648-2489 (6137)

38791873984189<$100

Kings

Invested

$47.84

Value

$47.84

PnL

-$0

Record

48%

2787-3042 (5829)

Pan9X<$100

Kings

Invested

$39.02

Value

$23.52

PnL

-$0.5

Record

49%

1307-1356 (2663)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$10.6

Value

$9.6

PnL

-$1

Record

53%

390-340 (730)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$2.6

Value

$2.4

PnL

-$0.2

Record

40%

589-893 (1482)

Research grade

AvoidKings at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Kings

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Kings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleKings 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrTrail Blazers 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Trail Blazers 55% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kings wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.