Warriors vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5

18 of 26 top Polymarket traders hold Under (69%) · Under at 58¢ · $103K held · ended Nov 14

Over42¢Under58¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 69%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$103.3K

Combined PnL

$-14.2K

Smart Money Entry

50.4¢ → 58¢

+15% since entry · 18 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 58%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

18 of 26 top traders (69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over42%

Under58%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under18 traders

Total Value$75.3K

Total Shares117,231

Combined PnL+$9.2K

Over8 traders

Total Value$27.5K

Total Shares102,429

Combined PnL$-23.3K

Under — 69%Over — 31%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

18 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

69% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 80% · 15

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 68% · 25

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 51¢	$39.9K	$43.6K	+$3.7K	51% 2368-2313 (4681)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Overavg 49.7¢	$49.7K	$26.5K	$-23.2K	49% 615-643 (1258)
TM TMingchan	Underavg 49¢	$9.8K	$11.6K	+$1.8K	28% 16-41 (57)
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 50.7¢	$5.7K	$6.5K	+$795.42	57% 3570-2717 (6287)
QI qinlaoban	Underavg 48¢	$2.0K	$3.3K	+$1.3K	4% 8-174 (182)
0X 0x0c154c190E293B7e5F8D453b5F690C4dC9599A45-1775083003603	Underavg 51¢	$2.9K	$3.3K	+$394.52	— 10-8 (18)
FE fekefee	Underavg 49¢	$1.9K	$2.2K	+$342	16% 8-43 (51)
nigiri99	Underavg 52¢	$1.6K	$1.8K	+$185.82	51% 499-470 (969)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 50.4¢	$999.48	$1.1K	+$149.04	50% 3544-3611 (7155)
TX txwd9991	Underavg 48¢	$591	$972.69	+$381.69	6% 5-82 (87)
0xheavy888ARB<$100	Overavg 49.2¢	$500.6	$513.6	+$13	55% 441-368 (809)
└ Under leg	Underavg 49¢	$245	$290	+$45
└ Over leg	Overavg 49.2¢	$255.6	$223.6	-$32
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Overavg 48¢	$384	$344	-$40	23% 294-994 (1288)
LI LightParadox	Underavg 47¢	$206.09	$254.32	+$48.23	36% 911-1587 (2498)
NM NM-PCTR	Overavg 49¢	$245	$215	-$30	59% 3728-2540 (6268)
GC GC-PCTR	Overavg 49¢	$245	$215	-$30	36% 319-557 (876)
HY hydra1248	Underavg 51¢	$152.05	$172.92	+$20.87	76% 165-53 (218)
OM omnibus-076daa	Underavg 57¢	$161.39	$164.22	+$2.83	45% 445-541 (986)
VE Venusian	Underavg 47¢	$107.44	$132.59	+$25.15	36% 893-1601 (2494)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 43¢	$122.37	$122.49	+$0.12	55% 1350-1126 (2476)
VeryLucky888<$100	Underavg 47¢	$78	$78.13	+$15.13	53% 1186-1032 (2218)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Overavg 53¢	$78.44	$63.64	-$14.8	55% 250-204 (454)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 50¢	$40.15	$46.57	+$6.42	49% 1883-1987 (3870)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Overavg 42¢	$40.32	$41.28	+$0.96	58% 3436-2532 (5968)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 48.1¢	$29.43	$35.46	+$6.03	53% 1572-1421 (2993)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 43¢	$33.04	$33.04	-$0	56% 5073-4021 (9094)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$39,909.95

Value

$43.6K

PnL

+$3.7K

Record

51%

2368-2313 (4681)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Over

Invested

$49,728.87

Value

$26.5K

PnL

$-23.2K

Record

49%

615-643 (1258)

TMingchan

Under

Invested

$9,800

Value

$11.6K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

28%

16-41 (57)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$5,706.03

Value

$6.5K

PnL

+$795.42

Record

57%

3570-2717 (6287)

qinlaoban

Under

Invested

$2,000

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

8-174 (182)

0x0c154c190E293B7e5F8D453b5F690C4dC9599A45-1775083003603

Under

Invested

$2,874.34

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$394.52

Record

—

10-8 (18)

fekefee

Under

Invested

$1,862

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$342

Record

16%

8-43 (51)

nigiri99

Under

Invested

$1,610.44

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$185.82

Record

51%

499-470 (969)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$999.48

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$149.04

Record

50%

3544-3611 (7155)

txwd9991

Under

Invested

$591

Value

$972.69

PnL

+$381.69

Record

5-82 (87)

0xheavy888ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$500.6

Value

$513.6

PnL

+$13

Record

55%

441-368 (809)

Both legs:

Under$24549¢+$45

Over$255.649.2¢-$32

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Over

Invested

$384

Value

$344

PnL

-$40

Record

23%

294-994 (1288)

LightParadox

Under

Invested

$206.09

Value

$254.32

PnL

+$48.23

Record

36%

911-1587 (2498)

NM-PCTR

Over

Invested

$245

Value

$215

PnL

-$30

Record

59%

3728-2540 (6268)

GC-PCTR

Over

Invested

$245

Value

$215

PnL

-$30

Record

36%

319-557 (876)

hydra1248

Under

Invested

$152.05

Value

$172.92

PnL

+$20.87

Record

76%

165-53 (218)

omnibus-076daa

Under

Invested

$161.39

Value

$164.22

PnL

+$2.83

Record

45%

445-541 (986)

Venusian

Under

Invested

$107.44

Value

$132.59

PnL

+$25.15

Record

36%

893-1601 (2494)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$122.37

Value

$122.49

PnL

+$0.12

Record

55%

1350-1126 (2476)

VeryLucky888<$100

Under

Invested

$78

Value

$78.13

PnL

+$15.13

Record

53%

1186-1032 (2218)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$78.44

Value

$63.64

PnL

-$14.8

Record

55%

250-204 (454)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$40.15

Value

$46.57

PnL

+$6.42

Record

49%

1883-1987 (3870)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$40.32

Value

$41.28

PnL

+$0.96

Record

58%

3436-2532 (5968)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$29.43

Value

$35.46

PnL

+$6.03

Record

53%

1572-1421 (2993)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$33.04

Value

$33.04

PnL

-$0

Record

56%

5073-4021 (9094)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 58%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

18 of 26 top traders (69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

18 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

69% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 80% · 15

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 68% · 25

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.2%

58.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$66.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

166.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.