Jazz vs. Rockets: O/U 220.5

4 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 52¢ · $16K held · ends Nov 14

Over52¢Under48¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$16.0K

Combined PnL

$44.32

Smart Money Entry

51¢ → 51.5¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 12 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over52%

Under49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$7.4K

Total Shares14,443

Combined PnL+$72.21

Under8 traders

Total Value$6.7K

Total Shares13,618

Combined PnL-$27.89

Over — 33%Under — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Overavg 51¢	$5.4K	$5.4K	+$52.57	51% 2261-2214 (4475)
nehcnehcCTR	Underavg 49¢	$4.7K	$4.7K	-$48.27	34% 43-83 (126)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Overavg 48.8¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$27.81	57% 3561-2704 (6265)
└ Over leg	Overavg 48.8¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$30.33
└ Under leg	Underavg 53.3¢	$713.75	$655.6	-$58.15
nigiri99	Overavg 51¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$18.69	52% 471-427 (898)
PP ppku6298CTR	Underavg 49¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$17.45	7% 9-115 (124)
38 38791873984189CTR	Underavg 50.6¢	$249.05	$146.04	-$0.51	48% 2786-3040 (5826)
GC GC-P<$100	Overavg 50¢	$87.5	$88.38	+$0.88	33% 251-499 (750)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Underavg 53¢	$47.61	$44.02	-$3.59	46% 2084-2445 (4529)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Underavg 49.5¢	$29	$29.9	+$0.9	53% 388-339 (727)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 51.3¢	$133.93	$13.83	+$4.51	53% 1030-921 (1951)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$19.83	$10.94	+$1.31	49% 1306-1355 (2661)
SE sentrio<$100	Overavg 50¢	$7.5	$7.58	+$0.08	43% 808-1065 (1873)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 54¢	$13.61	$4.95	+$0.32	53% 1326-1186 (2512)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Over

Invested

$5,362.41

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$52.57

Record

51%

2261-2214 (4475)

nehcnehcCTR

Under

Invested

$4,730.95

Value

$4.7K

PnL

-$48.27

Record

34%

43-83 (126)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,957.47

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$27.81

Record

57%

3561-2704 (6265)

Both legs:

Over$1,243.7248.8¢+$30.33

Under$713.7553.3¢-$58.15

nigiri99

Over

Invested

$1,906.38

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$18.69

Record

52%

471-427 (898)

ppku6298CTR

Under

Invested

$1,710.1

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$17.45

Record

9-115 (124)

38791873984189CTR

Under

Invested

$249.05

Value

$146.04

PnL

-$0.51

Record

48%

2786-3040 (5826)

GC-P<$100

Over

Invested

$87.5

Value

$88.38

PnL

+$0.88

Record

33%

251-499 (750)

suntoriCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$47.61

Value

$44.02

PnL

-$3.59

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$29

Value

$29.9

PnL

+$0.9

Record

53%

388-339 (727)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$133.93

Value

$13.83

PnL

+$4.51

Record

53%

1030-921 (1951)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$19.83

Value

$10.94

PnL

+$1.31

Record

49%

1306-1355 (2661)

sentrio<$100

Over

Invested

$7.5

Value

$7.58

PnL

+$0.08

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$13.61

Value

$4.95

PnL

+$0.32

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 12 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.