Wisconsin vs. Maryland: O/U 41.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (80%) · Over at 51¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 80%
$5.6K
-$56.39
51.1¢ → 50.5¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
8h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 nigiri99CTR | Underavg 49.9¢ | $2.4K | $2.4K | -$19.16 | 51% 499-470 (969) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Overavg 50¢ | $2.2K | $2.2K | +$21.74 | 57% 3570-2717 (6287) |
 VeryLucky888 | Overavg 53.4¢ | $935 | $875.51 | -$51.01 | 53% 1186-1032 (2218) |
38 38791873984189 | Overavg 53¢ | $166.95 | $159.08 | -$7.88 | 48% 2942-3249 (6191) |
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100 | Overavg 51¢ | $9.18 | $9.09 | -$0.09 | 48% 269-290 (559) |
nigiri99CTRInvested
$2,426.34
Value
$2.4K
PnL
-$19.16
Record
51%
499-470 (969)
Invested
$2,173.53
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$21.74
Record
57%
3570-2717 (6287)
VeryLucky888Invested
$935
Value
$875.51
PnL
-$51.01
Record
53%
1186-1032 (2218)
Invested
$166.95
Value
$159.08
PnL
-$7.88
Record
48%
2942-3249 (6191)
Invested
$9.18
Value
$9.09
PnL
-$0.09
Record
48%
269-290 (559)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.