Spread: Spurs (-11.5)

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Spurs (80%) · Spurs at 51¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 14

Spurs51¢Warriors49¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Spurs

Consensus Traders

Spurs 80%

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

-$48.52

Smart Money Entry

52.9¢ → 50.5¢

-4% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidSpurs at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Spurs

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Spurs51%

Warriors50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Spurs8 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares3,231

Combined PnL-$69.22

Warriors2 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,251

Combined PnL+$20.7

Spurs — 80%Warriors — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Spurs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSpurs 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Spurs 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JA JAMJAMJAM4	Spursavg 51¢	$989.4	$979.7	-$9.7	2% 11-509 (520)
nehcnehcCTR	Warriorsavg 49¢	$805.02	$813.24	+$8.21	34% 43-83 (126)
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF	Spursavg 57¢	$454.36	$406.54	-$47.83	38% 17-28 (45)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Warriorsavg 46.9¢	$285.66	$298.15	+$12.49	35% 749-1385 (2134)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Spursavg 55.8¢	$91.85	$83.98	-$7.87	57% 3561-2704 (6265)
38 38791873984189	Spursavg 53.5¢	$565.95	$76.4	-$2.11	48% 2786-3040 (5826)
nigiri99<$100	Spursavg 51¢	$62.73	$62.12	-$0.62	52% 471-427 (898)
NM NM-P<$100	Spursavg 50.9¢	$16.3	$16.34	+$0.04	59% 3648-2489 (6137)
0xheavy888<$100	Spursavg 56¢	$11.2	$10.2	-$1	53% 388-339 (727)
SU suntori<$100	Spursavg 52¢	$4.76	$4.62	-$0.14	46% 2084-2445 (4529)

JAMJAMJAM4

Spurs

Invested

$989.4

Value

$979.7

PnL

-$9.7

Record

11-509 (520)

nehcnehcCTR

Warriors

Invested

$805.02

Value

$813.24

PnL

+$8.21

Record

34%

43-83 (126)

QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF

Spurs

Invested

$454.36

Value

$406.54

PnL

-$47.83

Record

38%

17-28 (45)

LightParadoxCTR

Warriors

Invested

$285.66

Value

$298.15

PnL

+$12.49

Record

35%

749-1385 (2134)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Spurs

Invested

$91.85

Value

$83.98

PnL

-$7.87

Record

57%

3561-2704 (6265)

38791873984189

Spurs

Invested

$565.95

Value

$76.4

PnL

-$2.11

Record

48%

2786-3040 (5826)

nigiri99<$100

Spurs

Invested

$62.73

Value

$62.12

PnL

-$0.62

Record

52%

471-427 (898)

NM-P<$100

Spurs

Invested

$16.3

Value

$16.34

PnL

+$0.04

Record

59%

3648-2489 (6137)

0xheavy888<$100

Spurs

Invested

$11.2

Value

$10.2

PnL

-$1

Record

53%

388-339 (727)

suntori<$100

Spurs

Invested

$4.76

Value

$4.62

PnL

-$0.14

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

Research grade

AvoidSpurs at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Spurs

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Spurs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSpurs 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Spurs 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Spurs wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.