Research library

by PConsensus · Oct 25 2026 · Site export · Weather

Buy the side 80 %+ of 5+ tracked wallets agree on, in Weather markets, at any price (0.05–0.95), bought as soon as the rules hold, switched to the other side when the money flips (up to 3 times); after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fee, $1 a trade, over the dataset's whole window.

Study rule: Weather markets (99 % temperature ladders): buy the side 80 %+ of the 5+ tracked holders agree on, any money, any price; switch when a 60 %+ consensus forms on the other side. Study verdict (Oct 22 2026, categories): speculative: no edge found (+1.4 %, n 526); only to collect live data on the category the owner asked for

by PConsensus · Oct 25 2026 · Site export · all markets

Buy the side 60 %+ of 5+ tracked wallets agree on, in any market, at any price (0.05–0.95) and at least 3 more quality holders (win rate ≥ 60 % over ≥ 20 settled, $100+ in the market) for it than against it, bought as soon as the rules hold, held to resolution; after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fee, $1 a trade, over the dataset's whole window.

Study rule: Buy the consensus side at the first poll where the consensus has 60 %+ of 5+ holders (price 0.05-0.95) AND quality.net >= 3, even if that happens after the consensus first formed. Hold to resolution. Study verdict (Oct 22 2026, skill): A- (the engine-grid version: weaker, the most robustness-tested)

by PConsensus · Oct 25 2026 · Site export · all markets

Buy the side 60 %+ of 5+ tracked wallets agree on, in any market, at any price (0.05–0.95) and at least 3 more quality holders (win rate ≥ 60 % over ≥ 20 settled, $100+ in the market) for it than against it, decided once, in the hour the consensus forms, held to resolution; after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fee, $1 a trade, over the dataset's whole window.

Study rule: When a market's tracked-trader consensus first qualifies (5+ holders, 60 %+ of them on one side, price 0.05-0.95, at least 1 h before the end date), buy the consensus side only if the Bot API's quality.net is 3 or more at that moment: at least 3 more 'quality' holders (win rate 60 %+ over 20+ settled markets, $100+ in this market) on the consensus side than against it. Otherwise never trade that market. Hold to resolution. Study verdict (Oct 22 2026, skill): A (the family's best evidence; not proven)

by PConsensus · Oct 25 2026 · Site export · Esports

Buy the side 60 %+ of 5+ tracked wallets agree on, in Esports markets, priced 0.50–0.90 with $10,000+ of their money on it, bought as soon as the rules hold, held to resolution; after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fee, $1 a trade, over the dataset's whole window.

Study rule: Esports (CS2, LoL, Dota 2, Valorant, ...), any market: buy the 60 %+ consensus side when $10,000+ of tracked money is on it and it is priced 0.50-0.90; hold to the result. Study verdict (Oct 22 2026, categories): weak: positive in both windows, neither significant after selection

by PConsensus · Oct 25 2026 · Site export · Tennis

Buy the side 70 %+ of 5+ tracked wallets agree on, in ATP/WTA tour tennis markets, priced 0.05–0.50, bought as soon as the rules hold, held to resolution; after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fee, $1 a trade, over the dataset's whole window.

Study rule: ATP / WTA tour match winners where 70 %+ of the 5+ tracked holders back the player priced 0.05-0.50 (the underdog); no money floor; hold to the result. Study verdict (Oct 22 2026, categories): replicated in both windows but small and found after looking at the price breakdown of #1; speculative-plus

by PConsensus · Oct 25 2026 · Site export · Tennis

Buy the side 70 %+ of 5+ tracked wallets agree on, in ATP/WTA tour tennis markets, at any price (0.05–0.95), priced by a fill from the last 15 minutes, bought as soon as the rules hold, held to resolution; after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fee, $1 a trade, over the dataset's whole window.

Study rule: ATP and WTA tour-level tennis matches (not Challenger / ITF / WTA 125), any market of the match: buy the side 70 %+ of the 5+ tracked holders agree on, at any price 0.05-0.95, when a tracked fill in the last 15 minutes gives a current price; no money floor; hold to the result. Study verdict (Oct 22 2026, categories): best evidence in the study: positive in both windows (two periods, two wallet universes), survives 2 c and a 1 h delay; fails the multiple-testing guard (22 categories confirmed at once)

by PConsensus · Oct 25 2026 · Site export · all markets

Buy the side 80 %+ of 5+ tracked wallets agree on, in any market, priced 0.50–0.95 with $50,000+ of their money on it, bought as soon as the rules hold, held to resolution; after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fee, $1 a trade, over the dataset's whole window.

Study rule: Buy the consensus side once per market (first time all rules hold) when the market has 5+ tracked holders, the side has 80 %+ of the holders by head count, the side's stake (shares x average price of its $100+ holders) is $50,000+, its price is 0.50-0.95, the market ends 1+ h later (price no older than 6 h). Hold to resolution. Study verdict (Oct 22 2026, core): The most consistent cell of the whole grid: 80 %+, $50k+ stake on the side, price 0.50-0.95: +10.3 % a trade (n 172, CI +2.1..+18.3 %), positive in both windows (+8.6 % / +14.1 %), in-sample +8.5 % and out-of-sample +16.6 %

by PConsensus · Oct 25 2026 · Site export · all markets

Buy the side 60 %+ of 5+ tracked wallets agree on, in any market, priced 0.05–0.30, bought as soon as the rules hold, held to resolution; after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fee, $1 a trade, over the dataset's whole window.

The control nobody should copy: the core study measured about −30 % a trade on consensus longshots (−22 % in spring, −35 % in October).

by PConsensus · Oct 25 2026 · Site export · all markets

Buy the side 60 %+ of 5+ tracked wallets agree on, in any market, priced 0.70–0.95, bought as soon as the rules hold, held to resolution; after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fee, $1 a trade, over the dataset's whole window.

Study rule: Buy the consensus side once per market (first time all rules hold) when the market has 5+ tracked holders, the side has 60 %+ of the holders by head count, its price is 0.70-0.90, the market ends 1+ h later (price no older than 6 h). Hold to resolution. Study verdict (Oct 22 2026, core): The consensus' edge over the price is about +2-3 points on favourites (0.70-0.95) in both windows and negative on longshots (below 0.30: -21 to -35 % a trade). Broad version: +0.4 % pooled (n 4,327), +2.0 % Mar-Apr, -0.3 % Oct.

by PConsensus · Oct 25 2026 · Site export · all markets

Buy the side 60 %+ of 5+ tracked wallets agree on, in any market, at any price (0.05–0.95), bought as soon as the rules hold, held to resolution; after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fee, $1 a trade, over the dataset's whole window.

Study rule: Buy the consensus side once per market (first time all rules hold) when the market has 5+ tracked holders, the side has 60 %+ of the holders by head count, its price is 0.05-0.95, the market ends 1+ h later (price no older than 6 h). Hold to resolution. Study verdict (Oct 22 2026, core): The yardstick every other bot is measured against. The backtest predicts about -5 % a trade (pooled -4.8 %, CI -6.5..-3.1 %, n 10,051; -3.9 % in Mar-Apr, -5.2 % in Oct): the consensus wins slightly more often than its price says (+1 point) but not by the ~2-3 points the spread and fee take.