Houston vs. Colorado: O/U 53.5
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (86%) · Under at 55¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 86%
$8.1K
-$1.06
55.5¢ → 55¢
-1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 82%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Underavg 55.5¢ | $5.6K | $5.6K | +$4.4 | 57% 3430-2600 (6030) |
HI hi774c | Underavg 55¢ | $1,000 | $1.0K | +$9.09 | 19% 121-526 (647) |
PL pltrkr111 | Underavg 56¢ | $1,000 | $982.14 | -$17.86 | 3% 18-523 (541) |
GC GC-P | Underavg 55¢ | $192.5 | $194.25 | +$1.75 | 27% 151-418 (569) |
NM NM-P | Underavg 55¢ | $192.5 | $194.25 | +$1.75 | 59% 3533-2406 (5939) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks | Underavg 55.6¢ | $106.26 | $106.01 | -$0.25 | 55% 197-161 (358) |
IM imjustkenisgheyCTR<$100 | Overavg 42¢ | $0.92 | $0.97 | +$0.05 | 47% 20-23 (43) |
Invested
$5,564.14
Value
$5.6K
PnL
+$4.4
Record
57%
3430-2600 (6030)
Invested
$1,000
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$9.09
Record
19%
121-526 (647)
Invested
$1,000
Value
$982.14
PnL
-$17.86
Record
3%
18-523 (541)
Invested
$192.5
Value
$194.25
PnL
+$1.75
Record
27%
151-418 (569)
Invested
$192.5
Value
$194.25
PnL
+$1.75
Record
59%
3533-2406 (5939)
Invested
$106.26
Value
$106.01
PnL
-$0.25
Record
55%
197-161 (358)
Invested
$0.92
Value
$0.97
PnL
+$0.05
Record
47%
20-23 (43)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.