Thunder vs. Clippers: O/U 222.5

5 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Over (36%) · Over at 51¢ · $28K held · ends Nov 14

Over51¢Under49¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 36%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$28.0K

Combined PnL

$211.3

Smart Money Entry

49.8¢ → 50.5¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 14 top traders (36%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over51%

Under50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$14.1K

Total Shares27,972

Combined PnL+$122.55

Under9 traders

Total Value$13.9K

Total Shares27,297

Combined PnL+$88.74

Over — 36%Under — 64%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Overavg 50¢	$11.2K	$11.3K	+$111.79	51% 2261-2214 (4475)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 50.3¢	$7.5K	$7.5K	+$26.81	57% 3561-2704 (6265)
nehcnehc	Overavg 49¢	$3.1K	$2.6K	+$14.24	34% 43-83 (126)
FU Fund01CTR	Underavg 50¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$25	— 3-1 (4)
HI hi774cCTR	Underavg 50¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$22.18	21% 156-572 (728)
Stickman22CTR	Underavg 50¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$10	57% 12-9 (21)
NM NM-PCTR	Underavg 50¢	$175	$176.75	+$1.75	59% 3648-2489 (6137)
GC GC-PCTR	Underavg 50¢	$175	$176.75	+$1.75	33% 251-499 (750)
nigiri99	Overavg 50¢	$151	$147.98	-$3.02	52% 471-427 (898)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 50¢	$125	$126.25	+$1.25	53% 1030-921 (1951)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 49¢	$188.15	$98.49	+$2.83	48% 2786-3040 (5826)
└ Over leg	Overavg 49¢	$49	$49.5	+$2.35
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$48.5	$48.99	+$0.48
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 50¢	$60.26	$60.26	+$0	43% 808-1065 (1873)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Overavg 50¢	$55.5	$54.39	-$1.11	45% 214-259 (473)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 50.5¢	$24.29	$24.29	+$0	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 49¢	$34.79	$5.45	+$0.66	49% 1306-1355 (2661)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Over

Invested

$11,178.92

Value

$11.3K

PnL

+$111.79

Record

51%

2261-2214 (4475)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$7,514.2

Value

$7.5K

PnL

+$26.81

Record

57%

3561-2704 (6265)

nehcnehc

Over

Invested

$3,140.33

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$14.24

Record

34%

43-83 (126)

Fund01CTR

Under

Invested

$2,500

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$25

Record

—

3-1 (4)

hi774cCTR

Under

Invested

$2,218.35

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$22.18

Record

21%

156-572 (728)

Stickman22CTR

Under

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$10

Record

57%

12-9 (21)

NM-PCTR

Under

Invested

$175

Value

$176.75

PnL

+$1.75

Record

59%

3648-2489 (6137)

GC-PCTR

Under

Invested

$175

Value

$176.75

PnL

+$1.75

Record

33%

251-499 (750)

nigiri99

Over

Invested

$151

Value

$147.98

PnL

-$3.02

Record

52%

471-427 (898)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$125

Value

$126.25

PnL

+$1.25

Record

53%

1030-921 (1951)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$188.15

Value

$98.49

PnL

+$2.83

Record

48%

2786-3040 (5826)

Both legs:

Invested

$60.26

Value

$60.26

PnL

+$0

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

Forecastication2<$100

Over

Invested

$55.5

Value

$54.39

PnL

-$1.11

Record

45%

214-259 (473)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$24.29

Value

$24.29

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$34.79

Value

$5.45

PnL

+$0.66

Record

49%

1306-1355 (2661)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 14 top traders (36%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.