Spread: UCLA (-10.5)
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Illinois (50%) · Illinois at 53¢ · $30K held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Illinois
6
Illinois 50%
$29.8K
-$298.52
52¢ → 52.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralIllinois at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-10 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Illinois. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BA bands1 | Illinoisavg 52¢ | $15.3K | $15.3K | -$0 | 51% 339-332 (671) |
PW PwaddlerCTR | UCLAavg 48¢ | $14.3K | $14.0K | -$298.77 | 49% 262-275 (537) |
38 38791873984189 | Illinoisavg 52¢ | $260 | $260 | +$0 | 47% 1845-2082 (3927) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Illinoisavg 52¢ | $126.93 | $127.13 | +$0.2 | 57% 3356-2538 (5894) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | UCLAavg 47¢ | $46.53 | $46.53 | +$0 | 47% 394-451 (845) |
DA darkumbreon88CTR<$100 | UCLAavg 47¢ | $4.23 | $4.27 | +$0.04 | 61% 943-603 (1546) |
Invested
$15,281.35
Value
$15.3K
PnL
-$0
Record
51%
339-332 (671)
Invested
$14,340.86
Value
$14.0K
PnL
-$298.77
Record
49%
262-275 (537)
Invested
$260
Value
$260
PnL
+$0
Record
47%
1845-2082 (3927)
Invested
$126.93
Value
$127.13
PnL
+$0.2
Record
57%
3356-2538 (5894)
Invested
$46.53
Value
$46.53
PnL
+$0
Record
47%
394-451 (845)
Invested
$4.23
Value
$4.27
PnL
+$0.04
Record
61%
943-603 (1546)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.