Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (55%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Cincinnati vs. Iowa State: O/U 59.5
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (71%) · Over at 46¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Over
7
Over 71%
$2.6K
-$9.32
45.8¢ → 45.5¢
-1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 46%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Under 55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 79%
Freshness
Fresh
7h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189CTR | Overavg 45.6¢ | $1.9K | $939.28 | +$7.55 | 48% 2942-3249 (6191) |
 nigiri99CTR | Overavg 46.5¢ | $880.32 | $860.86 | -$19.46 | 51% 499-470 (969) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 45¢ | $450 | $455 | +$5 | 53% 1186-1032 (2218) |
PR primm | Underavg 55¢ | $304.15 | $301.39 | -$2.76 | 59% 899-622 (1521) |
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100 | Overavg 45¢ | $23.85 | $24.12 | +$0.26 | 48% 269-290 (559) |
AM AmericaFirst1<$100 | Underavg 55¢ | $11.44 | $11.34 | -$0.1 | 47% 72-82 (154) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100 | Overavg 44¢ | $5.56 | $5.74 | +$0.19 | 57% 3570-2717 (6287) |
Invested
$1,900.9
Value
$939.28
PnL
+$7.55
Record
48%
2942-3249 (6191)
nigiri99CTRInvested
$880.32
Value
$860.86
PnL
-$19.46
Record
51%
499-470 (969)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$450
Value
$455
PnL
+$5
Record
53%
1186-1032 (2218)
Invested
$304.15
Value
$301.39
PnL
-$2.76
Record
59%
899-622 (1521)
Invested
$23.85
Value
$24.12
PnL
+$0.26
Record
48%
269-290 (559)
Invested
$11.44
Value
$11.34
PnL
-$0.1
Record
47%
72-82 (154)
Invested
$5.56
Value
$5.74
PnL
+$0.19
Record
57%
3570-2717 (6287)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.