Jazz vs. Rockets: O/U 222.5

15 of 26 top Polymarket traders hold Over (58%) · Over at 99¢ · $29K held · ended Nov 14

Over99¢Under1¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 58%

Total Value

$28.7K

Combined PnL

$18.67

Smart Money Entry

45.8¢ → 99¢

+116% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

15 of 26 top traders (58%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over99%

Under1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over15 traders

Total Value$22.5K

Total Shares28,364

Combined PnL+$7.0K

Under11 traders

Total Value$6.2K

Total Shares23,907

Combined PnL$-7.0K

Over — 58%Under — 42%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 46.9¢	$7.0K	$8.2K	+$1.2K	57% 3567-2709 (6276)
FO Forecastication2	Overavg 42¢	$4.0K	$6.5K	+$2.5K	45% 224-272 (496)
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 49.8¢	$2.2K	$3.9K	+$1.7K	50% 3526-3585 (7111)
HI hi774cCTR	Underavg 58¢	$3.0K	$2.6K	-$428.15	22% 158-576 (734)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Overavg 46¢	$773.71	$1.6K	+$824.17	51% 2364-2297 (4661)
AP AppleTiiimeCTR	Underavg 53¢	$2.6K	$1.5K	$-1.2K	50% 96-95 (191)
RN1CTR	Underavg 46.4¢	$1.1K	$771.54	-$149.13	56% 5043-4004 (9047)
JO JoeyAroyyOO	Overavg 47¢	$525.5	$760.3	+$234.8	49% 127-130 (257)
LU luckycat888888CTR	Underavg 53¢	$5.3K	$700	$-4.6K	25% 37-112 (149)
nigiri99	Overavg 48¢	$429.12	$607.92	+$178.8	52% 499-463 (962)
MI micky456	Overavg 47¢	$243.92	$493.03	+$249.11	47% 469-528 (997)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Underavg 53¢	$424	$398.83	-$25.17	23% 293-989 (1282)
TA takeormake	Overavg 47¢	$81.31	$164.35	+$83.04	58% 3427-2519 (5946)
0xheavy888CTR	Underavg 52¢	$177.07	$100.45	-$76.62	54% 437-367 (804)
SU suitcase6628<$100	Overavg 49¢	$58.8	$84.6	+$25.8	64% 527-296 (823)
NM NM-P<$100	Overavg 46¢	$42.59	$62.96	+$20.37	60% 3726-2536 (6262)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Underavg 54¢	$107.99	$58.99	-$48.99	50% 3678-3623 (7301)
CI cigarettes<$100	Overavg 90¢	$45	$45.75	+$0.75	53% 6885-6020 (12905)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 68¢	$42.25	$37.73	-$4.52	37% 819-1385 (2204)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 58.5¢	$28.51	$24.3	-$4.21	53% 1556-1404 (2960)
AN Anon455<$100	Overavg 51¢	$8.8	$12.16	+$3.36	50% 358-364 (722)
38 38791873984189CTR	Underavg 8.6¢	$498.67	$10.37	-$14.3	48% 2922-3218 (6140)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Underavg 44.3¢	$1.0K	$9.52	-$483.33	54% 1316-1100 (2416)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 13.6¢	$69.39	$7.71	-$15.35	49% 1329-1376 (2705)
SE sentrio<$100	Overavg 47¢	$4.7	$6.8	+$2.1	43% 915-1235 (2150)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$7,005.99

Value

$8.2K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

57%

3567-2709 (6276)

Forecastication2

Over

Invested

$4,030.47

Value

$6.5K

PnL

+$2.5K

Record

45%

224-272 (496)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$2,202.74

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

50%

3526-3585 (7111)

hi774cCTR

Under

Invested

$3,048.43

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$428.15

Record

22%

158-576 (734)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Over

Invested

$773.71

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$824.17

Record

51%

2364-2297 (4661)

AppleTiiimeCTR

Under

Invested

$2,650

Value

$1.5K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

50%

96-95 (191)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$1,075.52

Value

$771.54

PnL

-$149.13

Record

56%

5043-4004 (9047)

JoeyAroyyOO

Over

Invested

$525.5

Value

$760.3

PnL

+$234.8

Record

49%

127-130 (257)

luckycat888888CTR

Under

Invested

$5,300

Value

$700

PnL

$-4.6K

Record

25%

37-112 (149)

nigiri99

Over

Invested

$429.12

Value

$607.92

PnL

+$178.8

Record

52%

499-463 (962)

micky456

Over

Invested

$243.92

Value

$493.03

PnL

+$249.11

Record

47%

469-528 (997)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Under

Invested

$424

Value

$398.83

PnL

-$25.17

Record

23%

293-989 (1282)

takeormake

Over

Invested

$81.31

Value

$164.35

PnL

+$83.04

Record

58%

3427-2519 (5946)

0xheavy888CTR

Under

Invested

$177.07

Value

$100.45

PnL

-$76.62

Record

54%

437-367 (804)

suitcase6628<$100

Over

Invested

$58.8

Value

$84.6

PnL

+$25.8

Record

64%

527-296 (823)

NM-P<$100

Over

Invested

$42.59

Value

$62.96

PnL

+$20.37

Record

60%

3726-2536 (6262)

6512395314597884CTR

Under

Invested

$107.99

Value

$58.99

PnL

-$48.99

Record

50%

3678-3623 (7301)

cigarettes<$100

Over

Invested

$45

Value

$45.75

PnL

+$0.75

Record

53%

6885-6020 (12905)

topdogbigboi<$100

Over

Invested

$42.25

Value

$37.73

PnL

-$4.52

Record

37%

819-1385 (2204)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$28.51

Value

$24.3

PnL

-$4.21

Record

53%

1556-1404 (2960)

Anon455<$100

Over

Invested

$8.8

Value

$12.16

PnL

+$3.36

Record

50%

358-364 (722)

38791873984189CTR

Under

Invested

$498.67

Value

$10.37

PnL

-$14.3

Record

48%

2922-3218 (6140)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Under

Invested

$1,035.73

Value

$9.52

PnL

-$483.33

Record

54%

1316-1100 (2416)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$69.39

Value

$7.71

PnL

-$15.35

Record

49%

1329-1376 (2705)

sentrio<$100

Over

Invested

$4.7

Value

$6.8

PnL

+$2.1

Record

43%

915-1235 (2150)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

15 of 26 top traders (58%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.