Spread: Hawks (-7.5)

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Bulls (64%) · Bulls at 53¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 14

Hawks48¢Bulls52¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Bulls

Consensus Traders

Bulls 64%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.5K

Combined PnL

-$63.45

Smart Money Entry

51.3¢ → 52.5¢

+2% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidBulls at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bulls

7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Hawks48%

Bulls53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bulls7 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares7,246

Combined PnL+$36.14

Hawks4 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,854

Combined PnL-$99.59

Bulls — 64%Hawks — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

64% of non-arb traders are on Bulls. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBulls 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedBulls 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Bulls 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Bullsavg 51¢	$2.5K	$2.4K	-$69.46	51% 2261-2214 (4475)
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 51¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$26.31
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 49¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$95.78
TA takeormake	Bullsavg 51¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$30.77	58% 3426-2517 (5943)
FE fekefeeCTR	Hawksavg 49¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$100.88	16% 8-43 (51)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Bullsavg 51¢	$682.44	$695.82	+$13.38	49% 611-642 (1253)
DA DanielsDixon	Bullsavg 51¢	$510	$520	+$10	8% 5-58 (63)
HO HomeRunHazard	Bullsavg 52¢	$445.46	$449.69	+$4.24	57% 3561-2704 (6265)
VeryLucky888	Bullsavg 52.8¢	$696.98	$442.02	-$22.94	53% 1030-921 (1951)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR	Hawksavg 50¢	$850	$90	-$6	75% 112-37 (149)
SE sentrio<$100	Bullsavg 52¢	$51.81	$52.31	+$0.5	43% 808-1065 (1873)
38 38791873984189CTR	Hawksavg 45¢	$222.56	$48.85	+$7.3	48% 2786-3040 (5826)
PA Pan9X<$100	Bullsavg 52¢	$19.23	$19.43	+$0.2	49% 1306-1355 (2661)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Hawksavg 47.7¢	$19.27	$19.26	-$0	53% 388-339 (727)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Bulls

Invested

$2,515.29

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$69.46

Record

51%

2261-2214 (4475)

Both legs:

Bulls$1,342.0151¢+$26.31

Hawks$1,173.2849¢-$95.78

takeormake

Bulls

Invested

$1,569.27

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$30.77

Record

58%

3426-2517 (5943)

fekefeeCTR

Hawks

Invested

$1,235.78

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$100.88

Record

16%

8-43 (51)

Multicoloured-Serf

Bulls

Invested

$682.44

Value

$695.82

PnL

+$13.38

Record

49%

611-642 (1253)

DanielsDixon

Bulls

Invested

$510

Value

$520

PnL

+$10

Record

5-58 (63)

HomeRunHazard

Bulls

Invested

$445.46

Value

$449.69

PnL

+$4.24

Record

57%

3561-2704 (6265)

VeryLucky888

Bulls

Invested

$696.98

Value

$442.02

PnL

-$22.94

Record

53%

1030-921 (1951)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR

Hawks

Invested

$850

Value

$90

PnL

-$6

Record

75%

112-37 (149)

sentrio<$100

Bulls

Invested

$51.81

Value

$52.31

PnL

+$0.5

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

38791873984189CTR

Hawks

Invested

$222.56

Value

$48.85

PnL

+$7.3

Record

48%

2786-3040 (5826)

Pan9X<$100

Bulls

Invested

$19.23

Value

$19.43

PnL

+$0.2

Record

49%

1306-1355 (2661)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Hawks

Invested

$19.27

Value

$19.26

PnL

-$0

Record

53%

388-339 (727)

Research grade

AvoidBulls at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Bulls

7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

64% of non-arb traders are on Bulls. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBulls 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedBulls 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Bulls 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bulls wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.