Patriots vs. Lions: O/U 50.5

2 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (18%) · Under at 54¢ · $45K held · ends Nov 15

Over47¢Under53¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 18%

Total Value

$45.2K

Combined PnL

$900.38

Smart Money Entry

52¢ → 53.5¢

+3% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 54%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 11 top traders (18%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over47%

Under54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$24.4K

Total Shares45,606

Combined PnL+$720.37

Over9 traders

Total Value$20.8K

Total Shares42,904

Combined PnL+$180

Under — 18%Over — 82%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GM gmpm2	Underavg 52¢	$23.2K	$23.9K	+$680.27	55% 356-293 (649)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 48¢	$12.0K	$12.2K	+$125.31	57% 3561-2704 (6265)
HI hi774cCTR	Overavg 48¢	$5.4K	$5.4K	+$56.13	21% 156-572 (728)
SE sentrioCTR	Overavg 48¢	$970.72	$940.56	-$30.16	43% 808-1065 (1873)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 53¢	$1.0K	$535.01	+$40.1	53% 1030-921 (1951)
NM NM-PCTR	Overavg 48.1¢	$507.44	$512.16	+$4.72	59% 3648-2489 (6137)
GC GC-PCTR	Overavg 48¢	$523.46	$508.87	-$14.59	33% 251-499 (750)
nigiri99CTR	Overavg 47¢	$508.54	$503.13	-$5.41	52% 471-427 (898)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 49¢	$346.92	$371.7	+$24.78	48% 2786-3040 (5826)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Overavg 49¢	$253.03	$271.1	+$18.07	48% 677-745 (1422)
OD OddstormCTR	Overavg 48¢	$110.7	$111.85	+$1.15	30% 77-180 (257)

gmpm2

Under

Invested

$23,184.18

Value

$23.9K

PnL

+$680.27

Record

55%

356-293 (649)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$12,030

Value

$12.2K

PnL

+$125.31

Record

57%

3561-2704 (6265)

hi774cCTR

Over

Invested

$5,388.39

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$56.13

Record

21%

156-572 (728)

sentrioCTR

Over

Invested

$970.72

Value

$940.56

PnL

-$30.16

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$1,035.7

Value

$535.01

PnL

+$40.1

Record

53%

1030-921 (1951)

NM-PCTR

Over

Invested

$507.44

Value

$512.16

PnL

+$4.72

Record

59%

3648-2489 (6137)

GC-PCTR

Over

Invested

$523.46

Value

$508.87

PnL

-$14.59

Record

33%

251-499 (750)

nigiri99CTR

Over

Invested

$508.54

Value

$503.13

PnL

-$5.41

Record

52%

471-427 (898)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$346.92

Value

$371.7

PnL

+$24.78

Record

48%

2786-3040 (5826)

SnakeBallCTR

Over

Invested

$253.03

Value

$271.1

PnL

+$18.07

Record

48%

677-745 (1422)

OddstormCTR

Over

Invested

$110.7

Value

$111.85

PnL

+$1.15

Record

30%

77-180 (257)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 54%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 11 top traders (18%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.