Spread: Texans (-3.5)
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Texans (40%) · Texans at 55¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
Texans
5
Texans 40%
$8.1K
$1.45
55¢ → 54.5¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralTexans at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Texans. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x241ADda58eD48866f0dEeC7867731dD84c5BA9C8-1763470351516 | Texansavg 55¢ | $4.4K | $4.3K | -$80 | 62% 18-11 (29) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Brownsavg 45¢ | $2.3K | $2.4K | +$51.36 | 57% 3570-2717 (6287) |
 nigiri99CTR | Brownsavg 45¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$25.54 | 51% 499-470 (969) |
IC ic4creamCTR | Brownsavg 45¢ | $204.75 | $209.3 | +$4.55 | 6% 27-459 (486) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Texansavg 54¢ | $30.42 | $30.42 | -$0 | 48% 2942-3249 (6191) |
Invested
$4,399.98
Value
$4.3K
PnL
-$80
Record
62%
18-11 (29)
Invested
$2,311.18
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$51.36
Record
57%
3570-2717 (6287)
nigiri99CTRInvested
$1,149.3
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$25.54
Record
51%
499-470 (969)
Invested
$204.75
Value
$209.3
PnL
+$4.55
Record
6%
27-459 (486)
Invested
$30.42
Value
$30.42
PnL
-$0
Record
48%
2942-3249 (6191)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.