Spread: Hawks (-6.5)

12 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Hawks (71%) · Hawks at 52¢ · $44K held · ends Nov 14

Hawks52¢Bulls48¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Hawks

Consensus Traders

Hawks 71%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$43.9K

Combined PnL

$12.19

Smart Money Entry

49.6¢ → 51.5¢

+4% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

AvoidHawks at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hawks

12 of 17 top traders (71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Hawks52%

Bulls49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bulls5 traders

Total Value$19.9K

Total Shares40,026

Combined PnL-$942.57

Hawks12 traders

Total Value$23.6K

Total Shares42,410

Combined PnL+$954.76

Bulls — 29%Hawks — 71%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Bullsavg 51.9¢	$14.1K	$13.0K	-$896.54	51% 2261-2214 (4475)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Hawksavg 48¢	$10.1K	$10.9K	+$801.44	49% 611-642 (1253)
0X 0x418D51e13d019913BB027DB22ECc723fe1AD88A3-1720918577961	Hawksavg 51¢	$5.1K	$5.2K	+$100	44% 12-15 (27)
HO HomeRunHazard	Hawksavg 50.8¢	$4.6K	$4.4K	+$40.05	57% 3561-2704 (6265)
LI LimousinCTR	Bullsavg 49¢	$3.9K	$3.8K	-$76.07	35% 735-1379 (2114)
nehcnehcCTR	Bullsavg 48¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$31	34% 43-83 (126)
nigiri99	Hawksavg 51.9¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	-$20.7	52% 471-427 (898)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Hawksavg 48¢	$222.96	$233.01	+$10.06	59% 3648-2489 (6137)
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 48¢	$173	$185.5	+$12.5
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 51¢	$49.96	$47.51	-$2.45
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100	Bullsavg 50¢	$1.2K	$200	+$0	75% 112-37 (149)
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 50¢	$100	$104	+$4
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 50¢	$100	$96	-$4
FL Flaznorp	Hawksavg 48¢	$182.88	$198.12	+$15.24	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
GC GC-P	Hawksavg 48¢	$168	$182	+$14	33% 251-499 (750)
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF	Hawksavg 51¢	$136.85	$139.53	+$2.68	38% 17-28 (45)
SE sentrioCTR	Bullsavg 49¢	$137.82	$136.87	-$0.95	43% 808-1065 (1873)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Hawksavg 51¢	$37.23	$37.6	+$0.37	49% 1668-1706 (3374)
PA Pan9X<$100	Hawksavg 50.3¢	$37.73	$31.26	+$0.68	49% 1306-1355 (2661)
0xheavy888<$100	Hawksavg 50¢	$29.6	$30.4	+$0.8	53% 388-339 (727)
38 38791873984189	Hawksavg 50¢	$275.74	$12.96	+$0.22	48% 2786-3040 (5826)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Bullsavg 47.5¢	$7.4	$7.4	+$0	40% 584-893 (1477)
SU suntori<$100	Hawksavg 52¢	$1.9	$1.88	-$0.02	46% 2084-2445 (4529)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Bulls

Invested

$14,089.18

Value

$13.0K

PnL

-$896.54

Record

51%

2261-2214 (4475)

Multicoloured-Serf

Hawks

Invested

$10,125.71

Value

$10.9K

PnL

+$801.44

Record

49%

611-642 (1253)

0x418D51e13d019913BB027DB22ECc723fe1AD88A3-1720918577961

Hawks

Invested

$5,100

Value

$5.2K

PnL

+$100

Record

44%

12-15 (27)

HomeRunHazard

Hawks

Invested

$4,635.07

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$40.05

Record

57%

3561-2704 (6265)

LimousinCTR

Bulls

Invested

$3,860.11

Value

$3.8K

PnL

-$76.07

Record

35%

735-1379 (2114)

nehcnehcCTR

Bulls

Invested

$2,975.88

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$31

Record

34%

43-83 (126)

nigiri99

Hawks

Invested

$2,419.57

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$20.7

Record

52%

471-427 (898)

NM-PARB<$100

Hawks

Invested

$222.96

Value

$233.01

PnL

+$10.06

Record

59%

3648-2489 (6137)

Both legs:

Hawks$17348¢+$12.5

Bulls$49.9651¢-$2.45

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100

Bulls

Invested

$1,200

Value

$200

PnL

+$0

Record

75%

112-37 (149)

Both legs:

Invested

$182.88

Value

$198.12

PnL

+$15.24

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

GC-P

Hawks

Invested

$168

Value

$182

PnL

+$14

Record

33%

251-499 (750)

QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF

Hawks

Invested

$136.85

Value

$139.53

PnL

+$2.68

Record

38%

17-28 (45)

sentrioCTR

Bulls

Invested

$137.82

Value

$136.87

PnL

-$0.95

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

ferdinand2<$100

Hawks

Invested

$37.23

Value

$37.6

PnL

+$0.37

Record

49%

1668-1706 (3374)

Pan9X<$100

Hawks

Invested

$37.73

Value

$31.26

PnL

+$0.68

Record

49%

1306-1355 (2661)

0xheavy888<$100

Hawks

Invested

$29.6

Value

$30.4

PnL

+$0.8

Record

53%

388-339 (727)

38791873984189

Hawks

Invested

$275.74

Value

$12.96

PnL

+$0.22

Record

48%

2786-3040 (5826)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$7.4

Value

$7.4

PnL

+$0

Record

40%

584-893 (1477)

suntori<$100

Hawks

Invested

$1.9

Value

$1.88

PnL

-$0.02

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

Research grade

AvoidHawks at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Hawks

12 of 17 top traders (71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hawks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.