Warriors vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (36%) · Under at 55¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 14

Over46¢Under54¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 36%

Total Value

$4.0K

Combined PnL

$4.25

Smart Money Entry

52.4¢ → 54.5¢

+4% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over46%

Under55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares4,869

Combined PnL+$72.26

Over7 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,939

Combined PnL-$68.01

Under — 36%Over — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 78% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 60% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 52.4¢	$2.2K	$2.3K	+$68.44	57% 3561-2704 (6265)
PP ppku6298CTR	Overavg 46¢	$900	$880.43	-$19.57	7% 9-115 (124)
TA takeormake	Underavg 53¢	$254.93	$259.74	+$4.81	58% 3426-2517 (5943)
SU suntoriCTR	Overavg 52¢	$190.47	$164.83	-$25.64	46% 2084-2445 (4529)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 50¢	$125	$110.25	-$12.25	53% 1030-921 (1951)
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 50¢	$57.52	$62.12	+$4.6	43% 808-1065 (1873)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR	Overavg 50¢	$600	$52.88	-$3.5	75% 112-37 (149)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 50¢	$57.52	$51.77	-$5.75	34% 735-1404 (2139)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$37.59	$35.99	-$1.6	53% 388-339 (727)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$26.54	$26.83	+$0.29	49% 611-642 (1253)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 54¢	$291.55	$13.96	-$5.59	48% 2786-3040 (5826)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$2,227.57

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$68.44

Record

57%

3561-2704 (6265)

ppku6298CTR

Over

Invested

$900

Value

$880.43

PnL

-$19.57

Record

9-115 (124)

takeormake

Under

Invested

$254.93

Value

$259.74

PnL

+$4.81

Record

58%

3426-2517 (5943)

suntoriCTR

Over

Invested

$190.47

Value

$164.83

PnL

-$25.64

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$125

Value

$110.25

PnL

-$12.25

Record

53%

1030-921 (1951)

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$57.52

Value

$62.12

PnL

+$4.6

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR

Over

Invested

$600

Value

$52.88

PnL

-$3.5

Record

75%

112-37 (149)

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$57.52

Value

$51.77

PnL

-$5.75

Record

34%

735-1404 (2139)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$37.59

Value

$35.99

PnL

-$1.6

Record

53%

388-339 (727)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$26.54

Value

$26.83

PnL

+$0.29

Record

49%

611-642 (1253)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$291.55

Value

$13.96

PnL

-$5.59

Record

48%

2786-3040 (5826)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 78% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 60% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.