Trail Blazers vs. Kings: O/U 229.5

11 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Over (73%) · Over at 57¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 14

Over57¢Under43¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 73%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.0K

Combined PnL

-$271.42

Smart Money Entry

49.3¢ → 57.5¢

+17% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

11 of 15 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over57%

Under43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over11 traders

Total Value$5.5K

Total Shares10,970

Combined PnL-$104.85

Under4 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares6,986

Combined PnL-$166.57

Over — 73%Under — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+47 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 60% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 64% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 49.4¢	$3.3K	$3.2K	-$81.77	57% 3570-2717 (6287)
MaoZeDonKCTR	Underavg 50¢	$2.8K	$2.7K	-$56	53% 25-22 (47)
0X 0x0A77exmm	Overavg 50¢	$750	$720	-$30	43% 34-45 (79)
VeryLucky888	Overavg 49¢	$1.2K	$534.06	+$7.24	53% 1186-1032 (2218)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Underavg 51¢	$615.38	$512.82	-$102.56	51% 470-452 (922)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 48.9¢	$587.98	$471.22	-$13.14	55% 1350-1126 (2476)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 51.9¢	$192.54	$184.79	-$7.75	50% 3544-3611 (7155)
└ Over leg	Overavg 51.9¢	$101.09	$103.23	+$2.14
└ Under leg	Underavg 52.7¢	$91.45	$81.56	-$9.89
NM NM-P	Overavg 50¢	$175	$168	-$7	59% 3728-2540 (6268)
GC GC-P	Overavg 50¢	$175	$168	-$7	36% 319-557 (876)
SU suntori	Overavg 45.2¢	$98.08	$124.9	+$26.82	46% 2359-2814 (5173)
nigiri99<$100	Overavg 48¢	$56.64	$56.64	+$0	51% 499-470 (969)
JO JoeyAroyyOOCTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$46.61	$46.61	-$0	49% 127-130 (257)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Underavg 52¢	$43.81	$35.81	-$8	41% 146-213 (359)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Overavg 47¢	$17.74	$18.11	+$0.38	51% 2368-2313 (4681)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 49.9¢	$18.09	$14.7	-$0.23	53% 1572-1421 (2993)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Overavg 51¢	$2.55	$2.4	-$0.15	40% 614-914 (1528)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$3,328.88

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$81.77

Record

57%

3570-2717 (6287)

MaoZeDonKCTR

Under

Invested

$2,800

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$56

Record

53%

25-22 (47)

0x0A77exmm

Over

Invested

$750

Value

$720

PnL

-$30

Record

43%

34-45 (79)

VeryLucky888

Over

Invested

$1,243.94

Value

$534.06

PnL

+$7.24

Record

53%

1186-1032 (2218)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Under

Invested

$615.38

Value

$512.82

PnL

-$102.56

Record

51%

470-452 (922)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$587.98

Value

$471.22

PnL

-$13.14

Record

55%

1350-1126 (2476)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$192.54

Value

$184.79

PnL

-$7.75

Record

50%

3544-3611 (7155)

Both legs:

Over$101.0951.9¢+$2.14

Under$91.4552.7¢-$9.89

NM-P

Over

Invested

$175

Value

$168

PnL

-$7

Record

59%

3728-2540 (6268)

GC-P

Over

Invested

$175

Value

$168

PnL

-$7

Record

36%

319-557 (876)

suntori

Over

Invested

$98.08

Value

$124.9

PnL

+$26.82

Record

46%

2359-2814 (5173)

nigiri99<$100

Over

Invested

$56.64

Value

$56.64

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

499-470 (969)

JoeyAroyyOOCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$46.61

Value

$46.61

PnL

-$0

Record

49%

127-130 (257)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$43.81

Value

$35.81

PnL

-$8

Record

41%

146-213 (359)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Over

Invested

$17.74

Value

$18.11

PnL

+$0.38

Record

51%

2368-2313 (4681)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$18.09

Value

$14.7

PnL

-$0.23

Record

53%

1572-1421 (2993)

ameisgoat11<$100

Over

Invested

$2.55

Value

$2.4

PnL

-$0.15

Record

40%

614-914 (1528)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

11 of 15 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+47 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 60% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 64% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.