Spread: Kennesaw State (-7.5)
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Sam Houston (29%) · Sam Houston at 54¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Sam Houston
7
Sam Houston 29%
$7.1K
$1.32
53¢ → 53.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralSam Houston at 54%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
7h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
29% of non-arb traders are on Sam Houston. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI lightotunnel35 | Sam Houstonavg 53¢ | $3.8K | $3.8K | +$35.79 | 15% 10-57 (67) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Kennesaw Stateavg 47¢ | $2.2K | $2.2K | -$23.2 | 57% 3570-2717 (6287) |
 nigiri99CTR | Kennesaw Stateavg 47¢ | $586.09 | $579.86 | -$6.24 | 51% 499-470 (969) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Kennesaw Stateavg 46.9¢ | $518.59 | $513.69 | -$4.9 | 48% 2942-3249 (6191) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Kennesaw Stateavg 47¢ | $34.31 | $33.95 | -$0.37 | 49% 1883-1987 (3870) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Kennesaw Stateavg 47¢ | $5.61 | $5.55 | -$0.06 | 36% 893-1601 (2494) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Sam Houstonavg 51¢ | $6.85 | $1.8 | +$0.29 | 53% 1572-1421 (2993) |
Invested
$3,793.5
Value
$3.8K
PnL
+$35.79
Record
15%
10-57 (67)
Invested
$2,180.62
Value
$2.2K
PnL
-$23.2
Record
57%
3570-2717 (6287)
nigiri99CTRInvested
$586.09
Value
$579.86
PnL
-$6.24
Record
51%
499-470 (969)
Invested
$518.59
Value
$513.69
PnL
-$4.9
Record
48%
2942-3249 (6191)
Invested
$34.31
Value
$33.95
PnL
-$0.37
Record
49%
1883-1987 (3870)
Invested
$5.61
Value
$5.55
PnL
-$0.06
Record
36%
893-1601 (2494)
Invested
$6.85
Value
$1.8
PnL
+$0.29
Record
53%
1572-1421 (2993)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.