South Carolina vs. Arkansas
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold South Carolina (40%) · South Carolina at 76¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
South Carolina
5
South Carolina 40%
$1.5K
-$9.68
74.3¢ → 75.5¢
+2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralSouth Carolina at 76%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
10h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on South Carolina. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | Arkansasavg 25.2¢ | $739.39 | $718.17 | -$21.22 | 53% 1030-921 (1951) |
 nigiri99 | South Carolinaavg 74¢ | $538.72 | $549.64 | +$10.92 | 52% 471-427 (898) |
HO HomeRunHazard | South Carolinaavg 75¢ | $264.75 | $266.52 | +$1.76 | 57% 3561-2704 (6265) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Arkansasavg 26¢ | $8.32 | $7.68 | -$0.64 | 48% 2786-3040 (5826) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Arkansasavg 26.4¢ | $5.54 | $5.04 | -$0.5 | 48% 677-745 (1422) |
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$739.39
Value
$718.17
PnL
-$21.22
Record
53%
1030-921 (1951)
nigiri99Invested
$538.72
Value
$549.64
PnL
+$10.92
Record
52%
471-427 (898)
Invested
$264.75
Value
$266.52
PnL
+$1.76
Record
57%
3561-2704 (6265)
Invested
$8.32
Value
$7.68
PnL
-$0.64
Record
48%
2786-3040 (5826)
Invested
$5.54
Value
$5.04
PnL
-$0.5
Record
48%
677-745 (1422)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.