Alabama vs. Vanderbilt
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Alabama (50%) · Alabama at 90¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Alabama
6
Alabama 50%
$1.8K
-$4.92
87.9¢ → 89.5¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralAlabama at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+10 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Alabama. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 nigiri99 | Alabamaavg 88¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$20.67 | 52% 128-120 (248) |
 RollAwayTheDew | Alabamaavg 88¢ | $267.25 | $271.8 | +$4.56 | 10% 26-240 (266) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Vanderbiltavg 12.2¢ | $228.87 | $197.31 | -$31.56 | 46% 311-361 (672) |
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | Alabamaavg 86¢ | $40.54 | $42.19 | +$1.65 | 57% 3234-2442 (5676) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Vanderbiltavg 10.2¢ | $5.19 | $5.33 | +$0.14 | 48% 1454-1600 (3054) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Vanderbiltavg 13¢ | $1.96 | $1.59 | -$0.38 | 55% 699-561 (1260) |
nigiri99Invested
$1,212.64
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$20.67
Record
52%
128-120 (248)
RollAwayTheDewInvested
$267.25
Value
$271.8
PnL
+$4.56
Record
10%
26-240 (266)
Invested
$228.87
Value
$197.31
PnL
-$31.56
Record
46%
311-361 (672)
Invested
$40.54
Value
$42.19
PnL
+$1.65
Record
57%
3234-2442 (5676)
Invested
$5.19
Value
$5.33
PnL
+$0.14
Record
48%
1454-1600 (3054)
Invested
$1.96
Value
$1.59
PnL
-$0.38
Record
55%
699-561 (1260)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.