Spread: Thunder (-7.5)

13 of 28 top Polymarket traders hold Clippers (46%) · Clippers at 55¢ · $52K held · ended Nov 14

Thunder45¢Clippers55¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Clippers

Consensus Traders

Clippers 46%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$51.7K

Combined PnL

-$287.59

Smart Money Entry

53.3¢ → 55¢

+3% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

AvoidClippers at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Clippers

13 of 28 top traders (46%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Thunder45%

Clippers55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Thunder15 traders

Total Value$21.3K

Total Shares47,836

Combined PnL$-1.4K

Clippers13 traders

Total Value$28.7K

Total Shares51,567

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Thunder — 54%Clippers — 46%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+9 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

44% of non-arb traders are on Clippers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleClippers 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpThunder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrThunder 59% · 17

Diverging

Hand-pickedThunder 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Thunder 56% · 27

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Thunderavg 47¢	$11.5K	$11.0K	-$490.98	49% 615-643 (1258)
BR BreakTheBank	Clippersavg 55¢	$9.3K	$9.3K	+$0	41% 596-843 (1439)
nigiri99	Clippersavg 52.7¢	$8.6K	$9.3K	+$620.88	51% 499-470 (969)
RO robloxgamblemaster-2008-10-18CTR	Thunderavg 48¢	$8.7K	$7.8K	-$811.73	51% 738-712 (1450)
nehcnehc	Clippersavg 52¢	$4.7K	$5.0K	+$272.99	34% 44-84 (128)
HO HomeRunHazard	Clippersavg 50.9¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$126.38	57% 3570-2717 (6287)
AY ay118	Clippersavg 51.9¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$75.3	25% 31-92 (123)
MaoZeDonKCTR	Thunderavg 49¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$98.78	53% 25-22 (47)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Thunderavg 46.5¢	$903.5	$917.5	+$14	59% 3728-2540 (6268)
└ Clippers leg	Clippersavg 51.6¢	$438.5	$467.5	+$29
└ Thunder leg	Thunderavg 46.5¢	$465	$450	-$15
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Clippersavg 52¢	$731.94	$774.17	+$42.23	51% 2368-2313 (4681)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Thunderavg 47.5¢	$547.55	$541.77	-$5.78	36% 319-557 (876)
└ Thunder leg	Thunderavg 47.5¢	$369.05	$349.27	-$19.78
└ Clippers leg	Clippersavg 51¢	$178.5	$192.5	+$14
CA CandleHammerDrums	Clippersavg 56.8¢	$439.64	$437.04	-$2.6	48% 465-495 (960)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Thunderavg 43.5¢	$385.39	$402.71	+$17.32	50% 3544-3611 (7155)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Thunderavg 48¢	$384	$360	-$24	23% 294-994 (1288)
RN1	Clippersavg 56.1¢	$338.23	$328.64	-$9.59	56% 5073-4021 (9094)
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF	Clippersavg 56¢	$303.48	$298.06	-$5.42	38% 17-28 (45)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Clippersavg 56.4¢	$262.37	$257.61	-$4.76	56% 4019-3135 (7154)
└ Clippers leg	Clippersavg 56.4¢	$177.46	$169.79	-$7.67
└ Thunder leg	Thunderavg 44.5¢	$84.91	$87.82	+$2.91
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Thunderavg 44¢	$192.72	$197.1	+$4.38	55% 1350-1126 (2476)
0xheavy888CTR	Thunderavg 46.2¢	$119.3	$116.32	-$2.98	55% 441-368 (809)
38 38791873984189	Clippersavg 54.9¢	$217.72	$113.43	+$1.26	48% 2942-3249 (6191)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Thunderavg 47.7¢	$57.19	$53.96	-$3.23	48% 855-936 (1791)
SU suntori<$100	Clippersavg 57¢	$43.8	$41.88	-$1.92	46% 2359-2814 (5173)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Thunderavg 45.1¢	$39.26	$39.15	-$0.11	49% 1349-1396 (2745)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Clippersavg 51¢	$45.93	$37.99	+$3.36	49% 1883-1987 (3870)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Thunderavg 43¢	$33.04	$34.58	+$1.54	50% 368-373 (741)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Thunder

Invested

$11,537.96

Value

$11.0K

PnL

-$490.98

Record

49%

615-643 (1258)

BreakTheBank

Clippers

Invested

$9,325.99

Value

$9.3K

PnL

+$0

Record

41%

596-843 (1439)

nigiri99

Clippers

Invested

$8,641.17

Value

$9.3K

PnL

+$620.88

Record

51%

499-470 (969)

robloxgamblemaster-2008-10-18CTR

Thunder

Invested

$8,658.43

Value

$7.8K

PnL

-$811.73

Record

51%

738-712 (1450)

nehcnehc

Clippers

Invested

$4,731.78

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$272.99

Record

34%

44-84 (128)

HomeRunHazard

Clippers

Invested

$1,605.25

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$126.38

Record

57%

3570-2717 (6287)

ay118

Clippers

Invested

$1,253.46

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$75.3

Record

25%

31-92 (123)

MaoZeDonKCTR

Thunder

Invested

$1,210

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$98.78

Record

53%

25-22 (47)

NM-PARB<$100

Thunder

Invested

$903.5

Value

$917.5

PnL

+$14

Record

59%

3728-2540 (6268)

Both legs:

Clippers$438.551.6¢+$29

Thunder$46546.5¢-$15

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Clippers

Invested

$731.94

Value

$774.17

PnL

+$42.23

Record

51%

2368-2313 (4681)

GC-PARB<$100

Thunder

Invested

$547.55

Value

$541.77

PnL

-$5.78

Record

36%

319-557 (876)

Both legs:

Thunder$369.0547.5¢-$19.78

Clippers$178.551¢+$14

CandleHammerDrums

Clippers

Invested

$439.64

Value

$437.04

PnL

-$2.6

Record

48%

465-495 (960)

FlaznorpCTR

Thunder

Invested

$385.39

Value

$402.71

PnL

+$17.32

Record

50%

3544-3611 (7155)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Thunder

Invested

$384

Value

$360

PnL

-$24

Record

23%

294-994 (1288)

RN1

Clippers

Invested

$338.23

Value

$328.64

PnL

-$9.59

Record

56%

5073-4021 (9094)

QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF

Clippers

Invested

$303.48

Value

$298.06

PnL

-$5.42

Record

38%

17-28 (45)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Clippers

Invested

$262.37

Value

$257.61

PnL

-$4.76

Record

56%

4019-3135 (7154)

Both legs:

Clippers$177.4656.4¢-$7.67

Thunder$84.9144.5¢+$2.91

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Thunder

Invested

$192.72

Value

$197.1

PnL

+$4.38

Record

55%

1350-1126 (2476)

0xheavy888CTR

Thunder

Invested

$119.3

Value

$116.32

PnL

-$2.98

Record

55%

441-368 (809)

38791873984189

Clippers

Invested

$217.72

Value

$113.43

PnL

+$1.26

Record

48%

2942-3249 (6191)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$57.19

Value

$53.96

PnL

-$3.23

Record

48%

855-936 (1791)

suntori<$100

Clippers

Invested

$43.8

Value

$41.88

PnL

-$1.92

Record

46%

2359-2814 (5173)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$39.26

Value

$39.15

PnL

-$0.11

Record

49%

1349-1396 (2745)

ferdinand2<$100

Clippers

Invested

$45.93

Value

$37.99

PnL

+$3.36

Record

49%

1883-1987 (3870)

Anon455CTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$33.04

Value

$34.58

PnL

+$1.54

Record

50%

368-373 (741)

Research grade

AvoidClippers at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Clippers

13 of 28 top traders (46%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+9 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

44% of non-arb traders are on Clippers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleClippers 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpThunder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrThunder 59% · 17

Diverging

Hand-pickedThunder 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Thunder 56% · 27

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Clippers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.2%

55.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$74.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

174.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.