Dolphins vs. Colts: O/U 38.5
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (33%) · Under at 54¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 33%
$12.8K
$4.45
53.1¢ → 53.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 54%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GM gmpm2 | Underavg 53¢ | $5.8K | $5.9K | +$110.33 | 55% 356-293 (649) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Overavg 47¢ | $4.5K | $4.4K | -$95.35 | 57% 3457-2627 (6084) |
 nigiri99 | Underavg 54¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$10.4 | 52% 353-330 (683) |
PL pltrkr111CTR | Overavg 46¢ | $908.96 | $918.84 | +$9.88 | 3% 19-524 (543) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 47¢ | $501.46 | $491.67 | -$9.79 | 52% 784-728 (1512) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Overavg 47¢ | $10.03 | $9.82 | -$0.21 | 54% 997-856 (1853) |
Invested
$5,765.8
Value
$5.9K
PnL
+$110.33
Record
55%
356-293 (649)
Invested
$4,477.93
Value
$4.4K
PnL
-$95.35
Record
57%
3457-2627 (6084)
nigiri99Invested
$1,123.74
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$10.4
Record
52%
353-330 (683)
Invested
$908.96
Value
$918.84
PnL
+$9.88
Record
3%
19-524 (543)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$501.46
Value
$491.67
PnL
-$9.79
Record
52%
784-728 (1512)
Invested
$10.03
Value
$9.82
PnL
-$0.21
Record
54%
997-856 (1853)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.