Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Clippers, while the market favors Thunder (53%). 9 of 19 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Thunder (-5.5)

9 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Clippers (47%) · Clippers at 47¢ · $45K held · ended Nov 14

Thunder53¢Clippers47¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Clippers

Consensus Traders

Clippers 47%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$44.6K

Combined PnL

-$508.4

Smart Money Entry

47.7¢ → 47¢

-1% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidClippers at 47%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Clippers

9 of 19 top traders (47%)Underdog side (market favors Thunder 53%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Thunder53%

Clippers47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Clippers9 traders

Total Value$29.7K

Total Shares62,921

Combined PnL-$414.5

Thunder10 traders

Total Value$14.1K

Total Shares26,470

Combined PnL-$93.9

Clippers — 47%Thunder — 53%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on Clippers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Clippers) and the top 1000 (19 on Thunder) disagree here.

whaleClippers 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrThunder 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedClippers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Thunder 58% · 19

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	Clippersavg 48¢	$14.8K	$14.5K	-$308.8	51% 3833-3624 (7457)
HO HomeRunHazard	Thunderavg 53.3¢	$11.8K	$11.8K	-$69.25	57% 3570-2717 (6287)
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Clippersavg 47.5¢	$11.7K	$11.6K	-$127.51	41% 596-843 (1439)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Clippersavg 47.8¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$20.01	50% 3544-3611 (7155)
AN Anon455	Thunderavg 52.3¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$14.22	50% 368-373 (741)
73 739633786CTR	Clippersavg 44¢	$972.17	$1.0K	+$67.32	8% 18-199 (217)
RN1CTR	Clippersavg 48¢	$849.32	$836.54	-$12.78	56% 5073-4021 (9094)
GC GC-P	Thunderavg 55.5¢	$555	$530	-$25	36% 319-557 (876)
VeryLucky888ARB<$100	Thunderavg 55.1¢	$5.6K	$475.29	+$218.43	53% 1186-1032 (2218)
└ Thunder leg	Thunderavg 55.1¢	$249.64	$239.96	-$12.64
└ Clippers leg	Clippersavg 45.2¢	$226.28	$235.34	+$231.07
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Clippersavg 48¢	$467.7	$458.32	-$9.37	55% 1350-1126 (2476)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Thunderavg 52.1¢	$348.53	$350.26	+$1.72	56% 4019-3135 (7154)
└ Thunder leg	Thunderavg 52.1¢	$191.29	$194.66	+$3.37
└ Clippers leg	Clippersavg 47.5¢	$157.24	$155.59	-$1.65
NM NM-P	Thunderavg 56¢	$280	$260	-$20	59% 3728-2540 (6268)
38 38791873984189	Thunderavg 52.2¢	$203.41	$169.34	+$3.73	48% 2942-3249 (6191)
MI micky456CTR	Clippersavg 48¢	$114.45	$112.07	-$2.38	47% 489-544 (1033)
Greedo<$100	Thunderavg 52¢	$71.94	$73.33	+$1.38	49% 191-195 (386)
SU suntori<$100	Thunderavg 53¢	$63.32	$62.97	-$0.35	46% 2359-2814 (5173)
nigiri99<$100	Thunderavg 52¢	$49.41	$50.35	+$0.94	51% 499-470 (969)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Clippersavg 48¢	$39.06	$38.25	-$0.81	49% 1883-1987 (3870)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Thunderavg 52¢	$27.69	$28.22	+$0.53	50% 3689-3644 (7333)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Clippersavg 46¢	$29.85	$14.7	-$0.15	49% 1349-1396 (2745)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Thunderavg 54¢	$5.4	$5.3	-$0.1	40% 614-914 (1528)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

Clippers

Invested

$14,822.22

Value

$14.5K

PnL

-$308.8

Record

51%

3833-3624 (7457)

HomeRunHazard

Thunder

Invested

$11,824.38

Value

$11.8K

PnL

-$69.25

Record

57%

3570-2717 (6287)

BreakTheBankCTR

Clippers

Invested

$11,680.66

Value

$11.6K

PnL

-$127.51

Record

41%

596-843 (1439)

FlaznorpCTR

Clippers

Invested

$1,166.02

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$20.01

Record

50%

3544-3611 (7155)

Anon455

Thunder

Invested

$1,101.64

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$14.22

Record

50%

368-373 (741)

739633786CTR

Clippers

Invested

$972.17

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$67.32

Record

18-199 (217)

RN1CTR

Clippers

Invested

$849.32

Value

$836.54

PnL

-$12.78

Record

56%

5073-4021 (9094)

GC-P

Thunder

Invested

$555

Value

$530

PnL

-$25

Record

36%

319-557 (876)

VeryLucky888ARB<$100

Thunder

Invested

$5,607.41

Value

$475.29

PnL

+$218.43

Record

53%

1186-1032 (2218)

Both legs:

Thunder$249.6455.1¢-$12.64

Clippers$226.2845.2¢+$231.07

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Clippers

Invested

$467.7

Value

$458.32

PnL

-$9.37

Record

55%

1350-1126 (2476)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Thunder

Invested

$348.53

Value

$350.26

PnL

+$1.72

Record

56%

4019-3135 (7154)

Both legs:

Thunder$191.2952.1¢+$3.37

Clippers$157.2447.5¢-$1.65

NM-P

Thunder

Invested

$280

Value

$260

PnL

-$20

Record

59%

3728-2540 (6268)

38791873984189

Thunder

Invested

$203.41

Value

$169.34

PnL

+$3.73

Record

48%

2942-3249 (6191)

micky456CTR

Clippers

Invested

$114.45

Value

$112.07

PnL

-$2.38

Record

47%

489-544 (1033)

Greedo<$100

Thunder

Invested

$71.94

Value

$73.33

PnL

+$1.38

Record

49%

191-195 (386)

suntori<$100

Thunder

Invested

$63.32

Value

$62.97

PnL

-$0.35

Record

46%

2359-2814 (5173)

nigiri99<$100

Thunder

Invested

$49.41

Value

$50.35

PnL

+$0.94

Record

51%

499-470 (969)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$39.06

Value

$38.25

PnL

-$0.81

Record

49%

1883-1987 (3870)

6512395314597884<$100

Thunder

Invested

$27.69

Value

$28.22

PnL

+$0.53

Record

50%

3689-3644 (7333)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$29.85

Value

$14.7

PnL

-$0.15

Record

49%

1349-1396 (2745)

ameisgoat11<$100

Thunder

Invested

$5.4

Value

$5.3

PnL

-$0.1

Record

40%

614-914 (1528)

Research grade

AvoidClippers at 47%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Clippers

9 of 19 top traders (47%)Underdog side (market favors Thunder 53%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on Clippers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Clippers) and the top 1000 (19 on Thunder) disagree here.

whaleClippers 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrThunder 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedClippers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Thunder 58% · 19

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Clippers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.2%

47.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$103.05

Max Loss

-$100.00

203.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.