Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (53%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Jazz vs. Rockets: O/U 219.5
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (83%) · Under at 48¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 14
⚠️
Avoid
Under
6
Under 83%
1 arb excluded
$1.6K
-$31.52
50.6¢ → 47.5¢
-6% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 48%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Over 53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
-3 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 78%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Overavg 49.4¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$22.79 | 57% 3561-2704 (6265) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 49.4¢ | $879.74 | $925.18 | +$45.44 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 51¢ | $286.18 | $263.52 | -$22.65 | |
MA MadridTimeCTR | Underavg 50¢ | $200 | $188 | -$12 | 36% 761-1361 (2122) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Underavg 51¢ | $151.64 | $139.75 | -$11.89 | 48% 677-745 (1422) |
HI hi774cCTR<$100 | Underavg 51¢ | $70.27 | $64.76 | -$5.51 | 21% 156-572 (728) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 51.5¢ | $29.7 | $27.8 | -$1.91 | 53% 1326-1186 (2512) |
SU suntori<$100 | Overavg 52.6¢ | $8.28 | $8.27 | -$0.01 | 46% 2084-2445 (4529) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Underavg 51¢ | $2.55 | $2.35 | -$0.2 | 53% 388-339 (727) |
Invested
$1,165.92
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$22.79
Record
57%
3561-2704 (6265)
Both legs:
Invested
$200
Value
$188
PnL
-$12
Record
36%
761-1361 (2122)
Invested
$151.64
Value
$139.75
PnL
-$11.89
Record
48%
677-745 (1422)
Invested
$70.27
Value
$64.76
PnL
-$5.51
Record
21%
156-572 (728)
Invested
$29.7
Value
$27.8
PnL
-$1.91
Record
53%
1326-1186 (2512)
Invested
$8.28
Value
$8.27
PnL
-$0.01
Record
46%
2084-2445 (4529)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$2.55
Value
$2.35
PnL
-$0.2
Record
53%
388-339 (727)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.