Spread: Spurs (-14.5)

11 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Spurs (61%) · Spurs at 95¢ · $20K held · ended Nov 14

Spurs95¢Warriors5¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Spurs

Consensus Traders

Spurs 61%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$19.6K

Combined PnL

$5.1K

Smart Money Entry

51.4¢ → 94.5¢

+84% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidSpurs at 95%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Spurs

11 of 18 top traders (61%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Spurs95%

Warriors6%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Spurs11 traders

Total Value$16.5K

Total Shares17,498

Combined PnL+$7.2K

Warriors7 traders

Total Value$463.45

Total Shares4,669

Combined PnL$-2.0K

Spurs — 61%Warriors — 39%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-20 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

47% of non-arb traders are on Spurs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSpurs 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrWarriors 55% · 11

Diverging

Hand-pickedSpurs 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Spurs 50% · 18

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Spursavg 44¢	$3.5K	$7.5K	+$4.0K	51% 499-470 (969)
CH ch27er	Spursavg 46.1¢	$2.5K	$5.1K	+$2.6K	27% 19-52 (71)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Warriorsavg 55.8¢	$5.5K	$2.4K	$-3.1K	57% 3570-2717 (6287)
└ Spurs leg	Spursavg 44¢	$744.5	$1.5K	+$779.63
└ Warriors leg	Warriorsavg 55.8¢	$4.7K	$844.27	$-3.9K
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Spursavg 80.2¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$200.01	55% 1350-1126 (2476)
GA Gaditima	Spursavg 43.6¢	$435.9	$945	+$509.1	48% 249-265 (514)
RN1	Spursavg 82¢	$472.07	$544.1	+$72.03	56% 5073-4021 (9094)
VeryLucky888CTR	Warriorsavg 54¢	$2.2K	$400	$-1.8K	53% 1186-1032 (2218)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Warriorsavg 18.1¢	$675.53	$268.52	-$399.01	50% 3544-3611 (7155)
└ Warriors leg	Warriorsavg 18.1¢	$564.43	$171.67	-$402.84
└ Spurs leg	Spursavg 90.8¢	$93.02	$96.85	+$3.83
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Spursavg 85.3¢	$197.73	$203.93	+$6.2	56% 4019-3135 (7154)
65 6512395314597884	Spursavg 85¢	$170	$180	+$10	50% 3689-3644 (7333)
38 38791873984189	Spursavg 89.8¢	$658.64	$116.3	-$197.27	48% 2942-3249 (6191)
TA takeormake<$100	Spursavg 81¢	$25.11	$29.29	+$4.18	58% 3436-2532 (5968)
0xheavy888CTR	Warriorsavg 56¢	$128.8	$23	-$105.8	55% 441-368 (809)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Warriorsavg 52¢	$104	$20	-$84	37% 841-1416 (2257)
MI micky456<$100	Spursavg 81¢	$17.01	$19.85	+$2.83	47% 489-544 (1033)
poshposhCTR<$100	Warriorsavg 51¢	$70.69	$13.86	-$56.83	48% 1014-1101 (2115)
PA Pan9X	Spursavg 89.6¢	$250.22	$13.73	-$65.23	49% 1349-1396 (2745)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Warriorsavg 15.7¢	$8.36	$3.46	-$4.9	49% 1883-1987 (3870)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100	Warriorsavg 28¢	$9.62	$1.89	-$7.73	51% 470-452 (922)
SU SunlineTickerCTR<$100	Warriorsavg 55¢	$6.83	$1.24	-$5.59	70% 1714-741 (2455)

nigiri99

Spurs

Invested

$3,494.64

Value

$7.5K

PnL

+$4.0K

Record

51%

499-470 (969)

ch27er

Spurs

Invested

$2,500

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$2.6K

Record

27%

19-52 (71)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Warriors

Invested

$5,453.66

Value

$2.4K

PnL

$-3.1K

Record

57%

3570-2717 (6287)

Both legs:

Spurs$744.544¢+$779.63

Warriors$4,709.1655.8¢$-3.9K

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Spurs

Invested

$1,767.75

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$200.01

Record

55%

1350-1126 (2476)

Gaditima

Spurs

Invested

$435.9

Value

$945

PnL

+$509.1

Record

48%

249-265 (514)

RN1

Spurs

Invested

$472.07

Value

$544.1

PnL

+$72.03

Record

56%

5073-4021 (9094)

VeryLucky888CTR

Warriors

Invested

$2,162.1

Value

$400

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

53%

1186-1032 (2218)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Warriors

Invested

$675.53

Value

$268.52

PnL

-$399.01

Record

50%

3544-3611 (7155)

Both legs:

Warriors$564.4318.1¢-$402.84

Spurs$93.0290.8¢+$3.83

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Spurs

Invested

$197.73

Value

$203.93

PnL

+$6.2

Record

56%

4019-3135 (7154)

6512395314597884

Spurs

Invested

$170

Value

$180

PnL

+$10

Record

50%

3689-3644 (7333)

38791873984189

Spurs

Invested

$658.64

Value

$116.3

PnL

-$197.27

Record

48%

2942-3249 (6191)

takeormake<$100

Spurs

Invested

$25.11

Value

$29.29

PnL

+$4.18

Record

58%

3436-2532 (5968)

0xheavy888CTR

Warriors

Invested

$128.8

Value

$23

PnL

-$105.8

Record

55%

441-368 (809)

topdogbigboiCTR

Warriors

Invested

$104

Value

$20

PnL

-$84

Record

37%

841-1416 (2257)

micky456<$100

Spurs

Invested

$17.01

Value

$19.85

PnL

+$2.83

Record

47%

489-544 (1033)

poshposhCTR<$100

Warriors

Invested

$70.69

Value

$13.86

PnL

-$56.83

Record

48%

1014-1101 (2115)

Pan9X

Spurs

Invested

$250.22

Value

$13.73

PnL

-$65.23

Record

49%

1349-1396 (2745)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Warriors

Invested

$8.36

Value

$3.46

PnL

-$4.9

Record

49%

1883-1987 (3870)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100

Warriors

Invested

$9.62

Value

$1.89

PnL

-$7.73

Record

51%

470-452 (922)

SunlineTickerCTR<$100

Warriors

Invested

$6.83

Value

$1.24

PnL

-$5.59

Record

70%

1714-741 (2455)

Research grade

AvoidSpurs at 95%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Spurs

11 of 18 top traders (61%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-20 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

47% of non-arb traders are on Spurs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSpurs 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrWarriors 55% · 11

Diverging

Hand-pickedSpurs 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Spurs 50% · 18

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Spurs wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.7%

94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.