Spread: Spurs (-10.5)

13 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Spurs (68%) · Spurs at 98¢ · $31K held · ended Nov 14

Spurs98¢Warriors2¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Spurs

Consensus Traders

Spurs 68%

Total Value

$30.9K

Combined PnL

$3.2K

Smart Money Entry

60.5¢ → 97.8¢

+61% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

AvoidSpurs at 98%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Spurs

13 of 19 top traders (68%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Spurs98%

Warriors2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Spurs13 traders

Total Value$30.3K

Total Shares31,543

Combined PnL+$10.9K

Warriors6 traders

Total Value$537.18

Total Shares20,436

Combined PnL$-7.8K

Spurs — 68%Warriors — 32%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Spurs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSpurs 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperWarriors 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrSpurs 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedSpurs 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Spurs 86% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Spursavg 58.7¢	$9.5K	$15.8K	+$6.3K	57% 3570-2717 (6287)
ZZ Zzzz87	Spursavg 58¢	$4.2K	$6.5K	+$2.4K	63% 82-49 (131)
CH ch27er	Spursavg 59¢	$2.5K	$4.1K	+$1.6K	27% 19-52 (71)
FL Flaznorp	Spursavg 93.1¢	$1.4K	$1.2K	-$125.86	50% 3544-3611 (7155)
SU SunlineTicker	Spursavg 59¢	$540.44	$893.56	+$353.12	70% 1714-741 (2455)
nigiri99	Spursavg 59.3¢	$401.33	$660.41	+$259.08	51% 499-470 (969)
OL olegioCTR	Warriorsavg 41¢	$8.3K	$485.13	$-7.6K	3% 4-137 (141)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Spursavg 93.9¢	$416.81	$397.38	-$19.43	55% 1350-1126 (2476)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Spursavg 80.9¢	$232.66	$247.85	+$15.18	56% 4019-3135 (7154)
65 6512395314597884	Spursavg 59¢	$118	$182	+$64	50% 3689-3644 (7333)
38 38791873984189	Spursavg 61.5¢	$278	$138.77	+$42.41	48% 2942-3249 (6191)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Spursavg 63.3¢	$53.8	$82.92	+$29.12	49% 1883-1987 (3870)
VeryLucky888CTR	Warriorsavg 39¢	$225.15	$46.17	-$111.56	53% 1186-1032 (2218)
RN1<$100	Spursavg 80.7¢	$94.67	$43.48	+$0.88	56% 5073-4021 (9094)
PA Pan9X<$100	Spursavg 63¢	$30.3	$12.52	+$7.44	49% 1349-1396 (2745)
dips.CTR<$100	Warriorsavg 3¢	$3.1	$2.33	-$0.77	47% 877-973 (1850)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Warriorsavg 3¢	$3	$2.25	-$0.75	59% 3410-2403 (5813)
MI micky456CTR<$100	Warriorsavg 3¢	$1	$0.75	-$0.25	47% 489-544 (1033)
VP VPenguinCTR<$100	Warriorsavg 41¢	$2.53	$0.56	-$1.98	39% 13-20 (33)

HomeRunHazard

Spurs

Invested

$9,526.11

Value

$15.8K

PnL

+$6.3K

Record

57%

3570-2717 (6287)

Zzzz87

Spurs

Invested

$4,154.27

Value

$6.5K

PnL

+$2.4K

Record

63%

82-49 (131)

ch27er

Spurs

Invested

$2,500

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

27%

19-52 (71)

Flaznorp

Spurs

Invested

$1,364.52

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$125.86

Record

50%

3544-3611 (7155)

SunlineTicker

Spurs

Invested

$540.44

Value

$893.56

PnL

+$353.12

Record

70%

1714-741 (2455)

nigiri99

Spurs

Invested

$401.33

Value

$660.41

PnL

+$259.08

Record

51%

499-470 (969)

olegioCTR

Warriors

Invested

$8,344.04

Value

$485.13

PnL

$-7.6K

Record

4-137 (141)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Spurs

Invested

$416.81

Value

$397.38

PnL

-$19.43

Record

55%

1350-1126 (2476)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Spurs

Invested

$232.66

Value

$247.85

PnL

+$15.18

Record

56%

4019-3135 (7154)

6512395314597884

Spurs

Invested

$118

Value

$182

PnL

+$64

Record

50%

3689-3644 (7333)

38791873984189

Spurs

Invested

$278

Value

$138.77

PnL

+$42.41

Record

48%

2942-3249 (6191)

ferdinand2<$100

Spurs

Invested

$53.8

Value

$82.92

PnL

+$29.12

Record

49%

1883-1987 (3870)

VeryLucky888CTR

Warriors

Invested

$225.15

Value

$46.17

PnL

-$111.56

Record

53%

1186-1032 (2218)

RN1<$100

Spurs

Invested

$94.67

Value

$43.48

PnL

+$0.88

Record

56%

5073-4021 (9094)

Pan9X<$100

Spurs

Invested

$30.3

Value

$12.52

PnL

+$7.44

Record

49%

1349-1396 (2745)

dips.CTR<$100

Warriors

Invested

$3.1

Value

$2.33

PnL

-$0.77

Record

47%

877-973 (1850)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Warriors

Invested

Value

$2.25

PnL

-$0.75

Record

59%

3410-2403 (5813)

micky456CTR<$100

Warriors

Invested

Value

$0.75

PnL

-$0.25

Record

47%

489-544 (1033)

VPenguinCTR<$100

Warriors

Invested

$2.53

Value

$0.56

PnL

-$1.98

Record

39%

13-20 (33)

Research grade

AvoidSpurs at 98%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Spurs

13 of 19 top traders (68%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Spurs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSpurs 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperWarriors 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrSpurs 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedSpurs 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Spurs 86% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Spurs wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.8%

97.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.