Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Mississippi State, while the market favors Auburn (51%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Auburn (-2.5)

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Mississippi State (40%) · Mississippi State at 50¢ · $628 held · ends Nov 14

Auburn51¢Mississippi State49¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Mississippi State

Consensus Traders

Mississippi State 40%

Total Value

$627.59

Combined PnL

$11.3

Smart Money Entry

46.7¢ → 49.5¢

+6% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralMississippi State at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Mississippi State

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Auburn 51%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Auburn51%

Mississippi State50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Mississippi State2 traders

Total Value$450.58

Total Shares826

Combined PnL+$9.51

Auburn3 traders

Total Value$177.01

Total Shares341

Combined PnL+$1.79

Mississippi State — 40%Auburn — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Mississippi State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Auburn) and the top 1000 (4 on Mississippi State) disagree here.

ctrAuburn 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedAuburn 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Mississippi State 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Mississippi Stateavg 47¢	$387.84	$393.8	+$5.96	57% 3183-2408 (5591)
VeryLucky888	Auburnavg 50¢	$163	$164.63	+$1.63	52% 422-389 (811)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Mississippi Stateavg 45¢	$53.23	$56.78	+$3.55	46% 255-304 (559)
GH ghorrock<$100	Auburnavg 51¢	$11.22	$11.38	+$0.16	54% 512-439 (951)
38 38791873984189<$100	Auburnavg 50¢	$1	$1	+$0	48% 1202-1284 (2486)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Mississippi State

Invested

$387.84

Value

$393.8

PnL

+$5.96

Record

57%

3183-2408 (5591)

VeryLucky888

Auburn

Invested

$163

Value

$164.63

PnL

+$1.63

Record

52%

422-389 (811)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Mississippi State

Invested

$53.23

Value

$56.78

PnL

+$3.55

Record

46%

255-304 (559)

ghorrock<$100

Auburn

Invested

$11.22

Value

$11.38

PnL

+$0.16

Record

54%

512-439 (951)

38791873984189<$100

Auburn

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

1202-1284 (2486)

Research grade

NeutralMississippi State at 50%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Mississippi State

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Auburn 51%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Mississippi State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Auburn) and the top 1000 (4 on Mississippi State) disagree here.

ctrAuburn 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedAuburn 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Mississippi State 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Mississippi State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.