Spread: Alabama (-17.5)
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Vanderbilt (33%) · Vanderbilt at 53¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Vanderbilt
6
Vanderbilt 33%
$4.3K
-$4.58
52¢ → 52.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralVanderbilt at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
20h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Vanderbilt. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186 | Vanderbiltavg 52¢ | $2.1K | $2.2K | +$21.49 | 49% 516-536 (1052) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Alabamaavg 48¢ | $1.8K | $1.8K | -$19.01 | 57% 3561-2704 (6265) |
 nigiri99 | Vanderbiltavg 53¢ | $136.87 | $130.29 | -$6.58 | 53% 472-427 (899) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Alabamaavg 47¢ | $118.48 | $119.74 | +$1.26 | 48% 2787-3042 (5829) |
DA darkumbreon88CTR<$100 | Alabamaavg 49¢ | $63.78 | $61.83 | -$1.95 | 61% 1004-631 (1635) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Alabamaavg 46.9¢ | $16.93 | $17.14 | +$0.21 | 53% 1374-1218 (2592) |
Invested
$2,133.43
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$21.49
Record
49%
516-536 (1052)
Invested
$1,838.52
Value
$1.8K
PnL
-$19.01
Record
57%
3561-2704 (6265)
nigiri99Invested
$136.87
Value
$130.29
PnL
-$6.58
Record
53%
472-427 (899)
Invested
$118.48
Value
$119.74
PnL
+$1.26
Record
48%
2787-3042 (5829)
Invested
$63.78
Value
$61.83
PnL
-$1.95
Record
61%
1004-631 (1635)
Invested
$16.93
Value
$17.14
PnL
+$0.21
Record
53%
1374-1218 (2592)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.