Warriors vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5
5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (56%) · Under at 53¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 14
⚠️
Avoid
Under
9
Under 56%
$3.5K
$7.37
51.5¢ → 52.5¢
+2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 53%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+13 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
56% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Underavg 51.8¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$19.77 | 57% 3561-2704 (6265) |
GA GaditimaCTR | Overavg 48.2¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | -$30 | 47% 224-251 (475) |
SN SnakeBall | Underavg 52¢ | $398.41 | $402.24 | +$3.83 | 48% 677-745 (1422) |
TO tomb2456 | Underavg 50¢ | $165.5 | $172.12 | +$6.62 | 53% 31-28 (59) |
VE Venusian | Underavg 49¢ | $122.99 | $130.52 | +$7.53 | 34% 735-1404 (2139) |
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100 | Overavg 47¢ | $29.22 | $29.53 | +$0.31 | 49% 611-642 (1253) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Overavg 48.5¢ | $19.39 | $18.79 | -$0.6 | 53% 388-339 (727) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Underavg 52¢ | $13 | $13.13 | +$0.13 | 43% 808-1065 (1873) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Overavg 48¢ | $10.27 | $10.06 | -$0.21 | 53% 1326-1186 (2512) |
Invested
$1,510.04
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$19.77
Record
57%
3561-2704 (6265)
Invested
$1,205
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$30
Record
47%
224-251 (475)
Invested
$398.41
Value
$402.24
PnL
+$3.83
Record
48%
677-745 (1422)
Invested
$165.5
Value
$172.12
PnL
+$6.62
Record
53%
31-28 (59)
Invested
$122.99
Value
$130.52
PnL
+$7.53
Record
34%
735-1404 (2139)
Invested
$29.22
Value
$29.53
PnL
+$0.31
Record
49%
611-642 (1253)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$19.39
Value
$18.79
PnL
-$0.6
Record
53%
388-339 (727)
Invested
$13
Value
$13.13
PnL
+$0.13
Record
43%
808-1065 (1873)
Invested
$10.27
Value
$10.06
PnL
-$0.21
Record
53%
1326-1186 (2512)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.